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Defence Scheme No. 1 was created on April 12, 1921 and details a surprise invasion of the northern United States as soon as possible after evidence was received of an American invasion of Canada
And of course its US equivalent War Plan Red:
The war plan outlined those actions that would be necessary to initiate war between Great Britain and the United States. The plan suggested that the British would initially have the upper hand by virtue of the strength of its navy. The plan further assumed that Britain would probably use its dominion in Canada as a springboard from which to initiate a retaliatory invasion of the United States. The assumption was taken that at first Britain would fight a defensive battle against invading American forces, but that the US would eventually defeat the British by blockading the United Kingdom and economically isolating it.
That's completely different to the political doctrine which currently has the largely fictional Al Qaeda as Enemy of Democracy Number 1, with a present and active threat in Afghanistan.
Political doctrine is never debated. It's stated and propagandised, and it's purely for internal consumption. The real ends - which remain mysterious in Afghanistan, although personally I suspect opium and other drugs - are never stated publicly.
Which means that civil war won't happen in Europe unless it's useful and profitable to someone.
Just as the Nazis happened in Germany precisely because they appeared useful and profitable.
I'm finding it hard to imagine Catalonian independence - or its absence - being useful or profitable to anyone.
Likewise in Greece, which is an economic sideshow.
I can imagine the current crop of mad rulers breaking Greece just to prove they can, and for fun, with the possibility of useful profit, somewhat tangentially.
But actual civil war would surely spook the markets almost as much as a default would.
Since I would not trust the current crop of rulers to run a piss-up in a brewery, I would not make any expensive bets on that proposition.
Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Except maybe Catalonians.
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