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Environment, Energy, Agriculture, Food


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Apr 19th, 2013 at 02:21:50 PM EST
Carbon bubble will plunge the world into another financial crisis - report | Environment | The Guardian

The so-called "carbon bubble" is the result of an over-valuation of oil, coal and gas reserves held by fossil fuel companies. According to a report published on Friday, at least two-thirds of these reserves will have to remain underground if the world is to meet existing internationally agreed targets to avoid the threshold for "dangerous" climate change. If the agreements hold, these reserves will be in effect unburnable and so worthless - leading to massive market losses. But the stock markets are betting on countries' inaction on climate change.

The stark report is by Stern and the thinktank Carbon Tracker. Their warning is supported by organisations including HSBC, Citi, Standard and Poor's and the International Energy Agency. The Bank of England has also recognised that a collapse in the value of oil, gas and coal assets as nations tackle global warming is a potential systemic risk to the economy, with London being particularly at risk owing to its huge listings of coal.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Apr 19th, 2013 at 02:22:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To the extent that these reserves are fictitious to begin with this is a 'get out of jail free' card for those perpetrating the frauds - not that many would ever actually have gone to jail.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Apr 19th, 2013 at 10:02:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It's a pretty sophisticated argument: the report says that stock markets underprice the likelihood that fossil fuel companies will be prevented from actually producing the reserves they have booked (and which form the heart of their value), because of tougher carbon constraints (yet to be implemented).

What the report additionally says is that the difference in value, if stock markets caught up with that possibility, would be large enough to destabilize financial markets severely.

This could be seen as an argument not to do anything about fuel burning (but I don't think this is what Nicholas Stern means), or another way to underline the disproportionate influence of fossil fuel companies on our economies, and the need to cut them down (maybe the message isthat we need to do it slowly, and start now...)

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 09:50:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I was only suggesting an additional possible benefit to the argument. If fossil fuel corporations have, as some have suggested, greatly inflated their reserves this could be a defense preferable to admitting that their estimates were excessively large.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 11:43:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What the report additionally says is that the difference in value, if stock markets caught up with that possibility, would be large enough to destabilize financial markets severely.

IOW, "Question us and your world will collapse!" But it is the world owned by finance that would collapse. The rest of us just live in it and are subjected to it. But if we are collectively stupid enough to go along with a reconstruction based on the same principles that formed the old 'world' then we will only have worsened our situation. OTOH... we could put some financial criminals in jail, for starters. It couldn't be fraud until someone was prosecuted and currently financial criminals have impunity. But fraud by leaders of fossil fuel corporations would likely be harder to prove than most other frauds in finance.

See See Jeffrey Sachs Calls Out Wall Street Criminality and Pathological Greed in yesterday's naked capitalism. (He seems a somewhat different JS than the one who was so active in 'reforming' the post-Soviet states. Perhaps people can develop a moral sensibility.)

 

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 12:02:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Shock Doctrine mentions in passing that Sachs appeared genuinly shocked when the west did not come up with loans for Russia similar to those he had previously got for Bolivia and Poland. Might have sent him on a different trajectory.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 01:53:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ARGeezer:
Perhaps people can develop a moral sensibility.)

probably too many migraines caused by wearing lead blinkers...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 05:45:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What about the secondary and tertiary industries that leverage coal and oil?

For example, in the U.S., the big railroad companies do a huge business shipping coal. If we entered into a serious program to reduce coal fired generation of electricity, this business would collapse. Is it fraudulent to run a company based on the relatively short-term view of what might be a profitable shipping business?

Or, in the U.S., we have not bought into the idea of investing in passenger railroads, but continue to build conventional highways to carry an ever-increasing population of cars and trucks. Maybe that is the right thing to do, even, if you think that electric cars will become more practical and that sustainable energy supplies will provide abundant inexpensive electricity. Is it fraudulent for a state to plan its transportation system based on one particular technical approach given that another approach might or might not be better in the long run?

by asdf on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 12:47:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
None of the things you suggest seem fraudulent to me. But, IF the fossil fuel companies have knowingly seriously inflated their estimates of total reserves and that has benefited their share price, bonuses, etc. that should provide the basis for a civil fraud prosecution should a prosecutor or a complainant chose to press charges, regardless, in theory, of the effect that such prosecution might have on the financial markets. (Lawyers could confirm or reject this assertion.) It is simple. Either we have rule of law or we don't. At present it does not appear that we do, at least for matters involving transgressions by the financial sector. Where indicated prosecutors are supposed to bring charges without fear or favor. Most fail on one or both of fear and favor.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:39:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If we entered into a serious program to reduce coal fired generation of electricity, this business would collapse.

Coal has gone from 48% of US electricity generation to 35% in just a few years, and rail traffic has gone down accordingly. Thankfully for the rail ways, Coal's decline comes as oil booms - they are moving to ship oil by rail these days...


Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 03:11:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
tanker cars on our BNSF line about 3 weeks ago. Likely to have been Bakken crude, as they were coming from the east.

paul spencer
by paul spencer (paulgspencer@gmail.com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 04:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Rekord: Wind- und Solaranlagen produzieren mehr Strom als konventionelle KraftwerkeRecord: wind and solar generators produce more electricity than conventional power plants
Münster - Die Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien hat heute einen neuen Spitzenwert erreicht. Wind- und Solaranlagen in Deutschland haben erstmals mit einer Leistung von rund 36.000 Megawatt (MW) Strom produziert, teilte das Internationale Wirtschaftsforum Regenerative Energien (IWR) mit. Das entspricht der Kraftwerksleistung von mehr als 30 Atomkraftwerken. Zeitweise speisten die regenerativen Anlagen mehr Strom in das bundesdeutsche Netz ein als die konventionellen Kraftwerke. "Erstmals wurde Deutschland an einem laststarken Werktag zwischenzeitlich zu mehr als 50 Prozent mit Strom aus Wind- und Solaranlagen versorgt", sagte IWR-Direktor Dr. Norbert Allnoch in Münster. Die Zahlen basieren auf den Daten der Strombörse EEX.Münster - The generation of electricity from renewable energy has now reached a new peak. Wind and solar power generators in Germany have produced electricity with a power of c. 36,000 megawatts (MW) for the first time, announced the International Economic Platform for Renewable Energies (IWR). This corresponds to the generating capacity of more than 30 nuclear power plants. At times, renewable producers fed more power into the German federal power grid than conventional power plants. "For the first time, Germany has been supplied to the tune of more than 50% with electricity from wind and solar generators," IWR director Norbert Allnoch told in Münster. The figures are based on data from the electricity exchange EEX.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Apr 19th, 2013 at 02:22:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
the comment that comes to mind is - this is not very hard day to balance the grid - non (wind+solar) demand is almost flat throughout the day. This is a good day, operationally speaking, for baseload plants and, conversely, a terrible one for peakers and mid-load plants, which will not be used - but economically, it's a bad day for both, as prices are going to be baseload prices almost the whole day, ie crappy for producers.

Thinking about this, it looks like you're going 3 kinds of days in the market now:

  • days like this one, where renewables displace almost all the variable production capacity (there will be quite a few, given solar's natural production profile, which matches demand quite well over the day - a lot of days from April to October will be like this, and in winter, wind tends to produce more so the seasonal effect will be muted); these days will be easy for the system operationally, but crappy economically for all traditional producers

  • days when renewables are so plentiful that even some baseload may need to be switched off - or prices will turn negative and the country will export a lot of cheap power (see my separate comment below on exports); this will be painful for baselaod plants, and horrible for economics of all tradiitonal producers;

  • days when you have less renewables, or temporary peaks and troughs; on these days, traditional producers will be needed and prices will be significantly higher; these days will be operationally more complex for the system but economically profitable for the traditional producers - and the only days when peakers and other highly flexible can actually earn money, so the number of such days is going to be critical for their continued viability (and thus their availability to the system);


Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 10:02:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

German power exports more valuable than its imports

Now that the switch to renewables has not produced blackouts, but record power exports, the new conventional wisdom has it that German ratepayers are subsidizing electricity sold on the cheap to neighboring countries. Why doesn't anyone just do the math?

The new official figures published today by DeStatis basically confirm the preliminary statistics published by BDEW at the beginning of the year, which put Germany's net power exports at a record level - an outcome that flies in the face of concerns that the sudden nuclear phaseout of 2011 would lead to a shortfall of power generation.

Now, the German press is full of reports charging that German ratepayers are having to subsidize energy that is given away practically for free to neighboring countries. RP online writes of the "paradoxical situation" in which "German power providers have to pay for the power they export just to get rid of it so it can be consumed where it is not really needed."

As regular readers of Renewables International know, regular readers of Der Spiegel are particularly misinformed, so it comes as no surprise that the five visible comments under Spiegel's article largely assume that Germans are subsidizing cheap power for foreign countries. The third comment reads, "It would be interesting to know how much foreign countries pay for German power and how much Germany pays for foreign power."

The stupid thing is that all of this is provided in DeStatis' press report from today, but no article I could find (RP online, Der Spiegel, Frankfurter Rundschau, etc.) bothers to do the math on the statistics published. So here it is:

                                          TWh     Billion euros     Price per kWh in cents
German power exports     66.6             3.7                     5.6
German power imports     43.8             2.3                     5.25

This is not rocket science; it's basic math. On average, Germany received 5.6 cents and paid 5.25 cents per kilowatt-hour exported/imported, respectively. In other words, the value of the kilowatt-hour Germany exports is more than the value it imports - exactly the opposite of what everyone seems to expect.



Wind power
by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 10:04:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I first misread 'RP online' as 'PR online', but perhaps my misread was the better take on the situation. It would be interesting to know what are the financial arrangements between traditional German power producers and many of the journalists and/or publishers of articles critical of renewable power.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 05:47:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]


Germany: Construction of Trianel's Borkum Offshore Wind Farm Reaches Next Stage

The installation work for the internal transformer platform for Trianel's Borkum wind farm was successfully completed yesterday.

During a two-day mission at the construction site, 45 kilometers off the Borkum's coast, the heavy lift vessel Oleg Strashnov lifted the 2,400-ton deck onto the substructure (jacket).  Then the transformer platform and jacket were welded together.

"With the transformer platform, we haven't just installed the power outlet for the wind farm, but we also created the conditions for the next stage of construction," said Klaus Horstick, Managing Director of Trianel wind farm Borkum GmbH & Co. KG. "In the coming months, we will erect the wind turbines."

The erection of the AREVA M5000 turbines with a capacity of 5 MW should start in May. During the installation of wind turbines, the installation vessel MPI Adventure will be used for half a year.

The offshore wind farm is planned to be connected to the grid by TenneT in the 3rd quarter of 2013. Originally, the commissioning was planned for 2012/2013 year. However, a new completion date is scheduled for the 4th quarter of 2013.

This is one of the several German offshore wind projects that have been bank-financed to be under construction now - in fact, this was the first one to have been financed (I worked on it when I was still in my previous job, but was not involved in the final stages of the financing in 2010). As a few other projects in Germany, it's been hit by the delays in building the grid connections but is now moving to the final construction stage. (Bank financings include contingency planning that allows project construction to survive serious delays (typically in the 6-12 months range); I can't comment on any project specifics, but the generalised delays on grid connections have meant that these projects have had less room for manoeuver than usual for other problems. The lesson banks are taking from these projects is not that you can't do project finance for offshore, but that you need to increase the contingency budget a bit more. That will have a cost but at least it not prevent financing)

Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 10:21:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]
> but that you need to increase the contingency budget > a bit more

On the other hand there's a learning curve. I read somewhere that the delays in building the connections were due to the market in undersea HVDC cabling being overwhelmed. Isn't that a one-off event?

by mustakissa on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 04:23:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
To some extent that's true - and the grid delays are indeed taken as a one-off event; but what banks noticed was the combination of several unexpected events, each of which were unexpected events. so the lesson for now is that unexpected stuff happens, and it keeps on happening. As banks like to have safety buffers, they now consider that at least one serious unexpected event will happen anyway, and they need to be ready for a second one just in case.

This will be relaxed are more projects are built without hassle, but remember, the most recent precedents always loom larger in institutional memories (and people in project finance tend to have longer memories than in other sectors).

The good news is that the early projects were built within budget, so the very first conclusion the project finance marmet reached was "offshore wind is bankable" - and that's rather important...


Wind power

by Jerome a Paris (etg@eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 22nd, 2013 at 04:25:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
>  so the lesson for now is that unexpected stuff
> happens, and it keeps on happening

Hmm, there's one prof. Murphy who could have taught them that ;-)

by mustakissa on Tue Apr 23rd, 2013 at 02:12:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Britterna kidnappar skånska humlor - igen | Kvällsposten British kidnaps Scanian bumblebees - again
Förra årets upprörande insamling av vallhumlor sker i år igen. Humlorna fångas in och skeppas över till England för att skapa en ny brittisk stam.Last years upsetting collection of bumblebees will be done this year again. Bumblebees are captured and shipped over to England to create a new British tribe.

Last year there were calls about a threath to the bumblebees, to they seems to have survived.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 05:21:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Robobee Project Is Building Flying Robots the Size of Insects: Scientific American
Not too long ago a mysterious affliction called Colony Collapse Disorder (CCD) began to wipe out honeybee hives. These bees are responsible for most commercial pollination in the U.S., and their loss provoked fears that agriculture might begin to suffer as well. In 2009 the three of us, along with colleagues at Harvard University and Northeastern University, began to seriously consider what it would take to create a robotic bee colony. We wondered if mechanical bees could replicate not just an individual's behavior but the unique behavior that emerges out of interactions among thousands of bees. We have now created the first RoboBees--flying bee-size robots--and are working on methods to make thousands of them cooperate like a real hive.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 06:06:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Pardon me for worrying that the potential military applications of robobees might eclipse any agricultural application.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sat Apr 20th, 2013 at 05:52:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Or they could ban GM'ing crops with neonicotinoids.  But there's no €, $, ¥ to be made selling robo-bees if they ban 'em.  Also once they've wiped out insect populations bird insectivores will also go bye-bye so a company can make even more money by selling robo-birds.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 12:28:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Idly wondered what  nicotine does so I wandered off to find out and .... Holy SHIT.

Nicotine has long been known to stimulate one type of acetylcholine receptor ...

Note: acetylcholine is the basic neurotransmitter, across all species.  (That I know of)

... which is found both in the central nervous systems and at the nerve-muscle junction.  Acetylcholine stimulation at other kinds of receptor is not reinforcing but nicotinic receptors are abundant on dopamine releasing neurons in the nucleus accumbens.  One consequence of repeated exposure to nicotine ... is that after the end of nicotine us the nucleus accumbens cells responsible for reinforcement (dopamine cycle, etc.) become less responsible than usual.  That is, many events, not just nicotine itself, become less reinforcing than they used to be.

The nucleus accumbens is popularly known as the "pleasure center" but it is also vital in reward/reinforcement leading to initiation of any activity.

It is crazy to toss neonicotinoids into the ecology without understanding the effects.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:02:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ATinNM:
less responsible than usual

responsive?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:17:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:24:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is crazy to toss neonicotinoids into the ecology without understanding the effects.

The same could have been said about nicotine, but that ship sailed back in the 1580s and Raleigh was on board. One would think that we would have learned something in 400+ years, and we have. Unfortunately what we have not learned is how to usefully apply much what we have learned.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 02:34:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Our brains haven't caught up with what our brains can accomplish.  

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 02:58:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
This (apparently relatively old) video has been doing the rounds lately mostly because it contains a statement that 'water is just another foodstuff that should have a market price', but there is a lot more in it. The water segment is around 2'-3'30"



guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 07:35:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wikipedia: Peter Brabeck-Letmathe
Brabeck-Letmathe (credited as Peter Brabeck) appeared in the 2005 documentary We Feed The World in an interview at the end of the film. He said that the idea of water as a basic human right was "extreme" and that he believed water should have value like any foodstuff. He also affirmed that Nestlé was part of the solution to world poverty by employing so many people.


guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 07:40:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Not only that, he also says in this video (that I was thinking of posting too) that no one has been made ill by eating GM foodstuffs in 14 years in the US.
by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 10:37:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Has anyone studied the affect of eating GM foodstuffs?

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre
by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 12:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
No.

Why this question?

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 12:52:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
First:

Second, see my comment re: neonicotinoids, above.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:06:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Calm down, calm down...

There have been a few studies. Seralini et al have been told their sample wasn't large enough, so we can't conclude eating GM maize harmed rats (over full lifetime). On the pro-GM side (oops, this is science, how can we talk about sides?), a study showed no ill effects after three years' ingestion. On pigs, who live easily to 15 years, so no measure of ill effects in later life.

Oh, it isn't just a matter of eating transgenes. It's eating the pesticides GM plants express in all parts, and the systemic pesticides they imbibe after spraying.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:27:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The experiments to which you refer are exactly why I am skeptical about simple minded reductionism.  Lab experiments say virtually nothing about the effects of a concentration of agricultural petro-chemicals, transgene insecticides, etc., as they move across and up the food chain.  

See: the "miracle" of DDT.  (The "miracle" being we didn't destroy the global ecology.)

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 01:41:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The video is from 2005, whereas the Seralini study is from last year.

One interesting thing is that the video is pre-crisis, so this CEO's message is one of abundance "we've never had it so good, we've never had so much money, we've never been healthier, so why is everyone so gloomy?".

8 years later, his message is probably one of "we can't keep living beyond our means", as that is the conventional wisdom that the Very Serious Classes need to communicate to the plebes.

guaranteed to evoke a violent reaction from police is to challenge their right to "define the situation." --- David Graeber citing Marc Cooper

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 02:35:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And by how many € millions has his net worth been increased by his employment by Nestlé?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 21st, 2013 at 02:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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