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But his opinion shifted as the "understanding of the costs and benefits" changed. The original cost estimates were "almost entirely speculative", he admitted. "Perhaps the most glaring gap in the analysis presented to us at the time were the alternative ways of spending £30bn."... The economic benefits of HS2 were "neither quantified nor proven" and failed to take account of how the money might be spent on other projects instead, he added. These included upgrades to the east and west coast mainlines and improvements to rail services in the regions and provincial cities.
... The economic benefits of HS2 were "neither quantified nor proven" and failed to take account of how the money might be spent on other projects instead, he added. These included upgrades to the east and west coast mainlines and improvements to rail services in the regions and provincial cities.
He said analysis of the costs and benefits of the line from London to Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds had been "robust and thorough". "The analysis shows building the new line was cheaper - plus we'd be benefiting from improved connectivity, reliability, speed and avoid - bar Euston - most of the disruption of a conventional line upgrade." ... "We must build on that consensus by providing up to date and detailed evidence of the benefits that HS2 will bring, including the creation of 100,000 jobs and the economic return of £2 for every £1 invested through linking eight out of our 10 biggest cities.
... "We must build on that consensus by providing up to date and detailed evidence of the benefits that HS2 will bring, including the creation of 100,000 jobs and the economic return of £2 for every £1 invested through linking eight out of our 10 biggest cities.
A funny aside: £50bn question: do we want faster trains or limitless clean energy? - "For the same money, you can either shave 35 minutes off the journey between London and Birmingham, or develop fusion power". Fusion power as a source of limitless clean power is orders of magnitude less likely than an economically successful HS2 project. Schengen is toast!
Lord Adonis defends HS2 following claims it is an 'expensive mistake' | UK news | The Guardian
Adonis said the case against upgrades was proved by the £10bn upgrade of the west coast mainline, which "only delivered a fraction of the benefits of HS2".
The WCML upgrade was the perfect example of a major upgrade much more expensive than originally planned even after scaling down, but it's not the only one.
A cost increase by 10 billion pounds
British government adds £10bn to HS2 project | International Railway Journal
...This increases the so-called contingency fund for the project to £14.4bn.Justifying the increase to members of parliament, the secretary of state for transport, Mr Patrick McLoughlin, said: "While I expect the final costs to be lower than those I have outlined... this is the right way to plan the project." The increased budget also takes account of design and environmental changes made to appease people objecting the project.
...This increases the so-called contingency fund for the project to £14.4bn.
Justifying the increase to members of parliament, the secretary of state for transport, Mr Patrick McLoughlin, said: "While I expect the final costs to be lower than those I have outlined... this is the right way to plan the project." The increased budget also takes account of design and environmental changes made to appease people objecting the project.
That said, I keep thinking that the HS2 project is over-priced. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
I've been making myself a central heating controller with the Raspberry Pi. Last night I was trying to find a case for it.
Farnell - who are electronic suppliers to industry - sell US-made metal boxes for $1300.
Now, these are steel boxes with a good IP rating.
But $1300 for a box? And not a very big box at that?
However, he had earlier complained that when he was planning the line the transport department had no experts in high speed rail. "It only happens to be one of the most important and significant developments in international transport... How many experts were there on international high speed rail? None at all," he said in a speech at the rightwing think tank Policy Exchange on Wednesday.
...and:
Adonis said politicians could have endless debates about the costs and benefits of big infrastructure projects, but "what we do at the moment is nothing".
Well not exactly, consultancy fees probably get paid... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
At last, opposition to the HS2 rail project is extending beyond the Chilterns and is starting a debate that should have been had three years ago. There has always been something deeply worrying about the fact that all three main political parties are in support of the plan to build a high speed railway line linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds when the case is so weak and the cost so high. The parties have been outdoing each other in attempts to show that their support is unyielding in the face of growing evidence that the whole project is unsustainable. But outside Parliament, informed opposition is growing. The National Audit Office is querying the figures, the New Economics Foundation has produced a list of better uses for £33bn (it was before the recent cost rise announcement which now suggests £50bn including rolling stock) and on the Right several think tanks are questioning the case for the line. As the line's supporters have become more desperate, they have been clutching at straws to justify the ever mounting cost of this massive project. First it was to speed up journey times and to improve the environment, then to boost capacity, then to bridge the north south divide and finally to create jobs and `agglomeration benefits'. But none of these stack up.
There has always been something deeply worrying about the fact that all three main political parties are in support of the plan to build a high speed railway line linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds when the case is so weak and the cost so high. The parties have been outdoing each other in attempts to show that their support is unyielding in the face of growing evidence that the whole project is unsustainable.
But outside Parliament, informed opposition is growing. The National Audit Office is querying the figures, the New Economics Foundation has produced a list of better uses for £33bn (it was before the recent cost rise announcement which now suggests £50bn including rolling stock) and on the Right several think tanks are questioning the case for the line.
As the line's supporters have become more desperate, they have been clutching at straws to justify the ever mounting cost of this massive project. First it was to speed up journey times and to improve the environment, then to boost capacity, then to bridge the north south divide and finally to create jobs and `agglomeration benefits'. But none of these stack up.
Wolmar is an internationally renowned expert on rail. He is also angling to be Labour's next candidate for Mayor of London.
And I still think that the best bet for a high speed line north is to rebuild the Great Central. It just doesn't go near key marginal constituencies which need to be flattered keep to the Fen Causeway
Well the splitting of HS2 into two phases pretty much precluded the research of a route option loosely along the Great Central, though sections are used or paralleled by both stages (Stage 1 at Aylesbury and Stage 2 north of Nottingham). Upon checking, minimum curve radius was one mile except in cities, and there are a couple of cities crossed in the middle (Rugby, Leicester, Loughboro, Nottingham), so mayor deviations from the original route would have been needed for high-speed use.
My own take on the route is that they should have focused on following existing transport corridors from the onset (they did consider on sections after the public consultation).
key marginal constituencies which need to be flattered
The flattening I find in Wolmar's article is in London:
All the opposition has so far focussed on the Chilterns, but it is Camden council tenants who are most affected with the demolition of 600 homes and possibly more.
As for Wolmar's op-ed, you quote a part which is mostly rhetoric, while he makes several more focused arguments in the article. I react to some at a more general level:
Ultimately it's a distinction between 19th century technology and 21st century technology. Rail is a huge cash sink in the UK, and while it provides some benefits, it's based on the idea that you run an economy by shunting people and stuff around.
It's better than cars. But that kind of transport was necessary in the 19th century and the 20th centuries.
It's no longer quite so necessary in the 21st.
And here's another view:
In short, the costs and benefits of HS2 are large and uncertain. I prefer instead to focus on the opportunity costs: are there things that we could be doing with £30 billion that would yield a higher return than `£47 billion'? I think the answer is almost certainly yes, in both the area of transport - more intra-city schemes, for example - and more widely. On the basis of narrow cost-benefit analysis, this conclusion is backed up by the Eddington report, published in 2006. Comparing the figures for HS2 with those for projects that the Department for Transport had on its books at the time of Eddington suggests that HS2 is, at best, in the bottom quartile in terms of returns (and indeed, might be closer to being in the bottom 10%). One could say that this is irrelevant because HS2 has a critical mass that will deliver wider benefits. But as I have argued, there is a little evidence to support this assertion. If critical mass is important, then we could consider concentrating a large amount of investment in particular cities - for example, Birmingham, London, Manchester and Newcastle. To the best of my knowledge, no one has assessed what such a package would look like in terms of the wider impacts. One final objection to my negative conclusion might be that `we have to have HS2 because of capacity constraints on the west coast mainline'. Unfortunately, as the Eddington report showed, by the time HS2 is completed, there will be a great deal of congestion all over the transport network. Other schemes to tackle that congestion are likely to deliver much better returns because these aspects are well captured by traditional cost-benefit analysis and, as I have indicated, HS2 does pretty badly on that.
On the basis of narrow cost-benefit analysis, this conclusion is backed up by the Eddington report, published in 2006. Comparing the figures for HS2 with those for projects that the Department for Transport had on its books at the time of Eddington suggests that HS2 is, at best, in the bottom quartile in terms of returns (and indeed, might be closer to being in the bottom 10%).
One could say that this is irrelevant because HS2 has a critical mass that will deliver wider benefits. But as I have argued, there is a little evidence to support this assertion. If critical mass is important, then we could consider concentrating a large amount of investment in particular cities - for example, Birmingham, London, Manchester and Newcastle. To the best of my knowledge, no one has assessed what such a package would look like in terms of the wider impacts.
One final objection to my negative conclusion might be that `we have to have HS2 because of capacity constraints on the west coast mainline'. Unfortunately, as the Eddington report showed, by the time HS2 is completed, there will be a great deal of congestion all over the transport network. Other schemes to tackle that congestion are likely to deliver much better returns because these aspects are well captured by traditional cost-benefit analysis and, as I have indicated, HS2 does pretty badly on that.
ALso, comparing development costs with construction costs... *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
... How much would you care to wager at those odds?
(If only because I'll be dead before it arrives - as will most of us.)
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