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Liberal conspiracy - Christian Wolmar - The growing opposition to HS2 cannot be ignored any longer

At last, opposition to the HS2 rail project is extending beyond the Chilterns and is starting a debate that should have been had three years ago.

There has always been something deeply worrying about the fact that all three main political parties are in support of the plan to build a high speed railway line linking London with Birmingham, Manchester and Leeds when the case is so weak and the cost so high. The parties have been outdoing each other in attempts to show that their support is unyielding in the face of growing evidence that the whole project is unsustainable.

But outside Parliament, informed opposition is growing. The National Audit Office is querying the figures, the New Economics Foundation has produced a list of better uses for £33bn (it was before the recent cost rise announcement which now suggests £50bn including rolling stock) and on the Right several think tanks are questioning the case for the line.

As the line's supporters have become more desperate, they have been clutching at straws to justify the ever mounting cost of this massive project. First it was to speed up journey times and to improve the environment, then to boost capacity, then to bridge the north south divide and finally to create jobs and `agglomeration benefits'. But none of these stack up.

Wolmar is an internationally renowned expert on rail. He is also angling to be Labour's next candidate for Mayor of London.

And I still think that the best bet for a high speed line north is to rebuild the Great Central. It just doesn't go near key marginal constituencies which need to be flattered

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Thu Jul 4th, 2013 at 03:00:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]
rebuild the Great Central

Well the splitting of HS2 into two phases pretty much precluded the research of a route option loosely along the Great Central, though sections are used or paralleled by both stages (Stage 1 at Aylesbury and Stage 2 north of Nottingham). Upon checking, minimum curve radius was one mile except in cities, and there are a couple of cities crossed in the middle (Rugby, Leicester, Loughboro, Nottingham), so mayor deviations from the original route would have been needed for high-speed use.

My own take on the route is that they should have focused on following existing transport corridors from the onset (they did consider on sections after the public consultation).

key marginal constituencies which need to be flattered

The flattening I find in Wolmar's article is in London:

All the opposition has so far focussed on the Chilterns, but it is Camden council tenants who are most affected with the demolition of 600 homes and possibly more.

As for Wolmar's op-ed, you quote a part which is mostly rhetoric, while he makes several more focused arguments in the article. I react to some at a more general level:

  • I have nothing against the criticism of various parts of and studies for a project, but that's something else than heaping up everything (including the utterings of "several think tanks" "on the Right") in all-or-nothing opposition. My reaction to a number of issues he raises would be "that's a problem, change the plans". My reaction to the increased budget was to look at the benefit/cost estimates and see that even if all of the contingency would be spent, they would remain above 1.
  • Also, total sums are impressive, but the question is, over how many years.
  • What bothers me most is the contrast with local public transport spending at the end. Yet again, I say they aren't rivals but both of them are rivals of other modes: one shouldn't ask "HS2 or commuter rail", but "HS2 or airport expansion" and "light rail or car". Furthermore, it's not like nothing is being done on the London local transport front. Much more should be done. In particular, relieving commuter train congestion would need a long over-due RER-style system, but even what's done on that front has gotten similar opposition (Crossrail 1). BTW, consultation for Crossrail 2 started.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 8th, 2013 at 05:32:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The issue isn't the cost/benefit analysis, but that:

  1. The budget is only going to increase. This is the UK. Generally, we don't know how to cost projects effectively. (Cynics might suspect that the real role of HST2 isn't to provide transport, but to provide a corporate hand-out to our infrastructure corps.)

  2. It's a lot of cash, and it could be better spend on other things - like providing next-gen 1gbps broadband to the entire UK. I'm not sure if there's a benefit analysis for that, but I am fairly sure it could be done for around a quarter of the price and my guess is it would kick-start a transformation of the entire economy, with more people working from home, more businesses started in rural areas, more kinds of businesses being created to exploit fast content delivery, being-there-quality VR, open project innovation, and others.

3.You could spend the rest on improved public transport elsewhere in the UK.

Ultimately it's a distinction between 19th century technology and 21st century technology. Rail is a huge cash sink in the UK, and while it provides some benefits, it's based on the idea that you run an economy by shunting people  and stuff around.

It's better than cars. But that kind of transport was necessary in the 19th century and the 20th centuries.

It's no longer quite so necessary in the 21st.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 8th, 2013 at 05:50:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. If that's true, then that's true for any alternative project. (See WCML upgrade.)
  2. Is this the claim that broadband will allow everyone to work from home and travel less? I want to see that first in practice. For now traffic is increasing even where there is wide provision of broadband (like South Korea).
  3. I directly addressed this. Spending it elsewhere will do zip to change long-distance traffic patterns on the corridor.
  4. In general, the spend-it-elsewhere, let's-divide-the-pie-differently argument accepts the zero-sum fallacy of neoliberalism.


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Jul 8th, 2013 at 06:08:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
  1. No it's not, because it's a question of degree and basic service provision - i.e. increased traffic load, and the potential to make fares more affordable - vs decreased travel time and (very likely) even higher fares.

  2. Yes, that's the claim. But it relies on intelligent management accepting that telecommuting is an option, not just setting up the infrastructure. Korea's economy isn't comparable because there's far more physical industry there, so there's still a need to shunt people and stuff around in a way that isn't so necessary here. Around three quarters of UK GDP comes from the service sector.

  3. It's not clear yet that spending on HST2 will do anything to change long-distance traffic patterns on the corridor either. Rail in the UK is too damn expensive for non-business commuting, and it continues to be cheaper to drive almost everywhere. Unless I've missed something, HST2 is planing to cut travel times, not travel costs.

  4. Nice bit of evangelical rhetoric. Not sure how it's relevant to a reality-based economic case though.

The bottom line remains that you could spend £10bn on broadband and also buy yourself the equivalent of two projects on the scale of Crossrail - which isn't exactly priced as a bargain - or five projects on the scale of the WCML modernisation.

And here's another view:

In short, the costs and benefits of HS2 are large and uncertain. I prefer instead to focus on the opportunity costs: are there things that we could be doing with £30 billion that would yield a higher return than `£47 billion'? I think the answer is almost certainly yes, in both the area of transport - more intra-city schemes, for example - and more widely.

On the basis of narrow cost-benefit analysis, this conclusion is backed up by the Eddington report, published in 2006. Comparing the figures for HS2 with those for projects that the Department for Transport had on its books at the time of Eddington suggests that HS2 is, at best, in the bottom quartile in terms of returns (and indeed, might be closer to being in the bottom 10%).

One could say that this is irrelevant because HS2 has a critical mass that will deliver wider benefits. But as I have argued, there is a little evidence to support this assertion. If critical mass is important, then we could consider concentrating a large amount of investment in particular cities - for example, Birmingham, London, Manchester and Newcastle. To the best of my knowledge, no one has assessed what such a package would look like in terms of the wider impacts.

One final objection to my negative conclusion might be that `we have to have HS2 because of capacity constraints on the west coast mainline'. Unfortunately, as the Eddington report showed, by the time HS2 is completed, there will be a great deal of congestion all over the transport network. Other schemes to tackle that congestion are likely to deliver much better returns because these aspects are well captured by traditional cost-benefit analysis and, as I have indicated, HS2 does pretty badly on that.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jul 8th, 2013 at 06:41:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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