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ATinNM:
There are pockets where population has, by and large, peaked and is predicted to decline over the next 40 years, Europe being one such.  The rest of the planet is still pumping out the kids.  

Not only Europe: many non-European countries have pretty much stopped "pumping out the kids". If you look at projected population growth and total fertility rates, you can see that even today, many populous countries are well below the replacement rate: China, Russia, Japan, but also Brazil, Iran, and even Venezuela and Mexico considering that in "poor" countries, the replacement rate is higher than 2.1 children per woman.

Today, the bulk of the population growth is in sub-Saharan Africa (but many African countries -except Nigeria and Congo - are starting from a rather low population) and especially the Indian sub-continent: India is expected to overtake China as the most populous country before 2030.

Even if the world population is expected to stop growing and even start decreasing before the end of this century, this doesn't mean there's not going to be a considerable strain on resources before that: especially in South Asia: India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and even Afghanistan. This, combined with female infanticide and selective abortion, is not boding well for the future of the region.

by Bernard (bernard) on Sun Jul 14th, 2013 at 12:29:10 PM EST
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FAO food price index.  The recent downturn is due entirely to a fall in sugar and dairy prices.  These have no impact on food prices in most of the world:

  1.  They can't afford sugar

  2.  Most of the world can't digest milk

Breaking out the different components:

It can be seen cereal prices are hovering at the danger point of social and political unrest ... as determined by some researchers in a report I'm too tired to find.

Given there is nothing, on the horizon, to even suggest an increase in global food production and the failure of GMO to live up to its hype it is safe to conclude food production is what it is and it's not going to increase.  

The impact of Global Climate Change is unknown but, at the moment, it's safe to say near-term global availability of cereals, e.g., wheat, will decrease. Example, the short grass prairie of the US is seeing falling production from a combination of drought and the emptying of the Ogallala aquifer.    

Adding this all up, I submit projections of a 9 billion human population in 2040 are moonshine.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Jul 14th, 2013 at 07:05:31 PM EST
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