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One point not really mentioned here is that demand management offers many opportunities. If society were to put as much effort into identifying and optimizing those as we do defending traditional supply management, a lot of progress could be made.
In the Southeast inland of the coast, I would not be surprised if the increase in Sunbelt populations is sustainable. Getting finance for solar-thermal dehumidification is more an institutional problem than a technological one, and much of the Southeast spends a lot of its high AC periods at temperatures where with low humidity and in the shade, a ceiling fan is sufficient for reasonable comfort. Add in a geothermal assist heat pump, high quality insulation and appropriate summer sun shading, and the AC demand can be dropped substantially.
LA has the additional problem that there is nothing like enough water in the local area to sustain the population in the style to which they have become accustomed. It seems likely that they'd need to go Fremen to make it on their local supply. For much of the Southwest part of the Sunbelt, Water problems will hit harder than Electricity cost over the coming two decades.
I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
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