My main argument is, emptywheel based her analysis on distrust of the deal with the Russians and the inability for the OPCW to do its task. In the press conference of Kerry and Putin, this point had been adressed and answered. Syria has ratified the CWC treaty and as such has committed itself to the process of CW disarmament. A UN Security Council resolution will be agreed upon in the coming days, supported by Russia and the US. To write this analysis, you don't believe a word that was said nor value the agreement signed. This is very similar to words and statements by McCain amd Graham. It's their lifeline.

The following statements by emptywheel are just not true ...

○ US Negotiating Position in Lavrov-Kerry Deal Depends on Expansive Commander-in-Chief Claims
○ just agreed to does allow the US to demand a UN resolution backing use of force in case Assad does balk
○ US does expect Russia would still veto such a resolution
○ because we exercise little leverage over them [rebels] , we may not be able to prevent them from scuttling the disarmament process

Her last paragraph is  basically wrong:

"In any case, I'm pretty sure I know what the Russians -- who, after all, won this round -- intend: that's to protect Assad's hold on power, via whatever means. And frankly, that's what we are -- explicitly, at least -- seeking as well, even while we continue to arm rebels trying to overthrow him."

Step 2 of this process will be vigorous talks between Russia and the US to iron out a political solution to the conflict. Just as in step 1, there will be a minimum of consultation with partners, the FSA and the Assad crowd.  I'm certain there is already a basic agreement on the outline of these talks - Geneva 2. Assad and his henchmen will not be part of a future regime in Syria. If you read between the lines, Putin and Russia already implied such a year ago. If the UN Inspectors point to Assad for the Ghouta gas attack, Assad is definitely out. The meeting between Kerry and Lavrov proceeded in good faith, Obama wil support a diplomatic solution. This is completely new for Obama, a reversal of his decision to attack the Assad regime a fortnight ago.

See my earlier post - US Confusion Setting Policy On Syria, other progressives tell the tale PBO knew all along what he was doing setting policy on Syria, a masterful coup to play out diplomacy.

"For the neo-cons, our Syria policy was rather explicitly about preventing Russia (and also Iran) from having any influence in Syria. The same can be said for our Sunni allies in the region. The same can be said for Israel. The president doesn't think that and never has thought that."

This writer in Israel gets it!
Analysis ||  U.S.- Russia agreement on Syrian chemical weapons, is, theoretically, a godsend for Israel by Chemi Shalev

'Sapere aude'