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From a consumer point of view my newly acquired mortgage was at 14% interest and inflation was similarly high. Industrial relations was bedeviled by disputes because everyone was trying to catch up/leapfrog over everybody else. Companies didn't like a high inflation environment because it played havoc with budgets.
There was quite significant exchange costs associated with all foreign transactions - especially for consumers. People lose track of what is a reasonable price when "everything keeps going up so fast" and become hyperanxious about prices. Overall the economy was paying a price for uncertainty, volatility, and exchange margins.
I'm not saying that the Government/Central bank couldn't have managed all of this a lot better, but the fact is they didn't. The value of the punt was probably too low for much of this period, but there seemed to be little the CB c/would do about it. It became part of the folk memory- a bit like German hyperinflation, and so the Euro was welcomed with open arms.
The Euro associated low interest rates where a large part of the reason for the emergence of the celtic tiger. The problem was that when the time came when we need much higher interest rates to curb the emerging the ECB did nothing because it was far more concerned with German recession post re-unification. It was this failure to act in the interests of the broader eurozone and the almost complete lack of bank regulation either in Ireland or in Europe which led to the subsequent crash.
So we've seen both the good and the bad sides of the currency union to date. I don't think the majority want to ditch the Euro at this stage, but we need an interest rate regime more suited to the entire zone and much better bank regulation and resolution mechanisms which, in an integrated financial market, can only be done properly at a Eurozone level. Hence the current frustration with Germany wanting to have it's cake and eat it - to have the Eurozone run in it's own interest and then do nothing when the inevitable fall-out happens in peripheral zones. Index of Frank's Diaries
In the 1980's the punt had lost a lot of value relative to Sterling based not on trade or competitiveness issues, but because the rating's agencies etc. decided that a small currency always constitutes a greater risk of volatility and were generally dismissive of such a small economy/currency.
Yes, this is unfortunate for the weaker and less powerful country, and represents a tribute payment to the more powerful.
No, you do not avoid paying this tribute by attempting to maintain a hard currency peg. You just force the more powerful countries to break your peg and loot your strategic hard currency reserves to collect it. That leaves you still paying the tribute, but with greater collateral damage.
From a consumer point of view my newly acquired mortgage was at 14% interest and inflation was similarly high.
Yes, you can use a currency peg (and accompanying threat of chaos if it is abandoned) to cut through the internal political discussions of your domestic democracy. The cost of that is that you cut through the internal political discussions of your domestic democracy.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
The value of the punt was probably too low for much of this period, but there seemed to be little the CB c/would do about it.
I don't think the majority want to ditch the Euro at this stage, but we need an interest rate regime more suited to the entire zone and much better bank regulation and resolution mechanisms which, in an integrated financial market, can only be done properly at a Eurozone level.
We need a fiscal union, otherwise the Eurozone will be a machine to generate unemployment.
My worst nightmare is that such a collapse will come and go and that 161 will only continue to consolidate their wealth and power. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Globalization (always) entails concentration of power. They dismissal of the Euro would be a big set back in that direction. Count thus on massive opposition from the people that count.
And, by the way, if the Euro falls that might be an extra disaster: If the interest of the power elites on each country becomes misaligned on a global scale then the usual strategies will be pursued (see e.g. Europe in the 30s/40s of the previous century).
While I see the Euro as mostly a power grab from the powerful, I do not know if I want to live through the era of its dismissal.
In the long run, the end of the Eurozone is of course a good thing. Of course, in the long run we are all dead.
A fiscal union requires a political union, because otherwise nationalist demagogues will always have an easy target such as "lazy Greeks" to exploit for local political advantage.
It won't stop nationalist demagoguery, but it can help to contain it, and make it less productive especially if potential outsider groups align more within the EP and develop common positions. It is very difficult to sell fiscal transfers from Germans to Greeks in the Bundestag: Less so in a more empowered EP especially if it is part of a deal where German interests also get part of what they want. Index of Frank's Diaries
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