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The value of the punt was probably too low for much of this period, but there seemed to be little the CB c/would do about it.
I don't think the majority want to ditch the Euro at this stage, but we need an interest rate regime more suited to the entire zone and much better bank regulation and resolution mechanisms which, in an integrated financial market, can only be done properly at a Eurozone level.
We need a fiscal union, otherwise the Eurozone will be a machine to generate unemployment.
My worst nightmare is that such a collapse will come and go and that 161 will only continue to consolidate their wealth and power. "It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
Globalization (always) entails concentration of power. They dismissal of the Euro would be a big set back in that direction. Count thus on massive opposition from the people that count.
And, by the way, if the Euro falls that might be an extra disaster: If the interest of the power elites on each country becomes misaligned on a global scale then the usual strategies will be pursued (see e.g. Europe in the 30s/40s of the previous century).
While I see the Euro as mostly a power grab from the powerful, I do not know if I want to live through the era of its dismissal.
In the long run, the end of the Eurozone is of course a good thing. Of course, in the long run we are all dead.
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
A fiscal union requires a political union, because otherwise nationalist demagogues will always have an easy target such as "lazy Greeks" to exploit for local political advantage.
It won't stop nationalist demagoguery, but it can help to contain it, and make it less productive especially if potential outsider groups align more within the EP and develop common positions. It is very difficult to sell fiscal transfers from Germans to Greeks in the Bundestag: Less so in a more empowered EP especially if it is part of a deal where German interests also get part of what they want. Index of Frank's Diaries
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