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We need a fiscal union, otherwise the Eurozone will be a machine to generate unemployment.

And just what is your confidence level that, given the givens in EU and EMU politics and popular received opinion today, that such a union formed this year would be anything other than a mechanism for further looting of everyone in the EMU other than the dominant fiancial elites?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 10:50:57 AM EST
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Lower than 5%.

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 04:08:14 PM EST
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I would say 'vanishing'. Which is why I think it essential to introduce something that disrupts the status quo. It would have been better to have had a major disruptor two or three years ago, before public opinion had shifted so far right.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 07:25:20 PM EST
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Eurozone survival is a tail event, a black swan...

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 07:50:56 PM EST
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On the current course -- agreed! Likely the next major financial disruption, if it is not due to the collapse of the Eurozone, will trigger the collapse of the Eurozone. We have had five years to fix the problems that cause the 2008 collapse but have only temporized. The problem is that the only real solution is to write down the bad debt. But that debt represents a lot of the wealth of the 161 individual to whom Bill Mitchell referred here.

My worst nightmare is that such a collapse will come and go and that 161 will only continue to consolidate their wealth and power.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 11:47:36 PM EST
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The Euro is of great interest to the power elites, thus I would raise its chance of survival by quite a lot...

Globalization (always) entails concentration of power. They dismissal of the Euro would be a big set back in that direction. Count thus on massive opposition from the people that count.

And, by the way, if the Euro falls that might be an extra disaster: If the interest of the power elites on each country becomes misaligned on a global scale then the usual strategies will be pursued (see e.g. Europe in the 30s/40s of the previous century).

While I see the Euro as mostly a power grab from the powerful, I do not know if I want to live through the era of its dismissal.

In the long run, the end of the Eurozone is of course a good thing. Of course, in the long run we are all dead.

by cagatacos on Wed Sep 25th, 2013 at 04:39:23 PM EST
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