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I have realised that one objection of mine is that I don't think it will fit the collapse of the EMU, but at the same time I am quite uncertain of how that crash will unfold.

So trying for a scenario that might include a Seuro.

Step 1: Syriza wins in Greece, refuses austerity, ECB refuses Greek debt as collateral crashing the Greek banks. Greece has to print to re-capitalise and either prints new dracham or prints euro and is kicked out of the third step of the EMU (common coins).

Greece stays in the EU and becomes a thorn in the side in the Council proceedings and ECB Governing Council meetings. In the Council the following areas still demand unamity according to wikipedia:

Voting in the Council of the European Union - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Certain policy fields remain subject to unanimity in whole or in part, such as:

  • membership of the Union (opening of accession negotiations, association, serious violations of the Union's values, etc.);
  • taxation;
  • the finances of the Union (own resources, the multiannual financial framework);
  • harmonisation in the field of social security and social protection;
  • certain provisions in the field of justice and home affairs (the European prosecutor, family law, operational police cooperation, etc.);
  • the flexibility clause (352 TFEU) allowing the Union to act to achieve one of its objectives in the absence of a specific legal basis in the treaties;
  • the common foreign and security policy, with the exception of certain clearly defined cases;
  • the common security and defence policy, with the exception of the establishment of permanent structured cooperation;
  • citizenship (the granting of new rights to European citizens, anti-discrimination measures);
  • certain institutional issues (the electoral system and composition of the Parliament, certain appointments, the composition of the Committee of the Regions and the European Economic and Social Committee, the seats of the institutions, the language regime, the revision of the treaties, including the bridging clauses, etc.).

Step 2: Spain and Italy follows the same way.

Now the rejects has 68 votes on the Council, needing just 25 more to stop any proposal. And given that expansion of the EU was sometimes hold up because some countries wanted to revisit fishing quotas discussions, using a blocking minority in one area to get leverage on another is established pracise.

Given this I wonder what ability the remaining EMU members has to punish the rejected ones? And also if the EU would still have enough policy cohesion to keep implementing austerity in new account deficit countries. Or really any ideas of how these dominos would fall once the first country leaves/is thrown out.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 03:07:21 PM EST

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