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Craig Willy: Turning Points & Bargaining Power: What primary deficits tell us about the eurozone crisis (November 18th, 2012)
Primary deficits are incredibly important in the crisis' constant negotiation because:

  • A country with a primary surplus, strictly speaking, does not need foreign help. It can theoretically default and not have to institute further spending cuts.
  • A country which can show it has a reliable primary surplus is more likely to benefit from the financial solidarity of other countries (such a guarantee can then in turn reassure financial markets and allow the country to cheaply refinance itself through private lenders).

Primary deficits are then critical to assessing the balance of power between countries and the moment (if ever) at which we will reach a salutary "turning point" in the crisis. ...


Category I: Financial bubbles, high primary deficits and submission to the Core

[Spain and Ireland]

Category II: Primary surpluses and some leeway

[Italy, Portugal, Greece]

Category III: Not in the euro & "fiscally irresponsible"

[Great Britain]

Category IV: Top of the World

[Germany, Austria, Netherlands, Luxembourg]


Germany will continue to set the tune on eurozone policy and the elaboration of the new permanent "federal" structures. France is in a precarious position. Spain has no choice but to submit completely and wholeheartedly to Berlin and Frankfurt's demands, whatever they might be, and it's not even sure then that they will risk helping the country. The rest of the crisis countries - Italy, Portugal and Greece - have achieved much with their efforts and theoretically, with their primary surpluses and the passage of the "Six Pack" and the Fiskalpakt, the way should be open for wholehearted aid by the ECB, with Germany's consent. This would bring down refinancing costs and massively reduce the need for austerity, thus easing them and the eurozone as a whole out of the crisis.

According to this, Spain is a weak point in your argument.

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 24th, 2013 at 03:58:44 PM EST
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