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Migeru:
it appears that the most parsimonious hypothesis is that a Syrian commander "went rogue"

Couldn't stay way from the technical discussion.

Who Attacked Ghouta?

Summary:

  1. The evidence implying a large-scale coordinated attack out of the capability of the opposition is weak. 
  2. The geolocation of the attack source to military bases is very weak. Actually, a more careful analysis results in locations within rebel held territory.
  3. The evidence associating the regime with the use of rockets similar to those used in the August 21st chemical attack is strong.

So my conclusion at this point is that while some of the Brown Moses evidence is weak, his ammunition analysis is the only evidence for regime responsibility that withstands scrutiny. In future posts I will compare it to the evidence supporting competing hypotheses.

The arguments are all there after the link. I find the distance simulations of the UMLACA interesting. Hopefully Brown Moses will chime in and some back and forth on the issues can shed more light on what we can know. Though I still suspect what we can know is little and what is covered by fog is large.

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by A swedish kind of death on Sun Sep 22nd, 2013 at 04:50:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I'm obviously behind the curve on this.

In the Neurozone, there can be only one.
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Sep 22nd, 2013 at 05:00:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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