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You're right that they don't by themselves trigger a hyperinflationary debt-devaluation spiral. But if someone were to engage in unfriendly currency movements aimed at Reals depreciation, then they would adversely affect the ability of the BCB to maintain domestic stability.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Jan 18th, 2014 at 12:57:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the fact that the BCB is attempting to prop up its exchange rate with derivatives is an indication that it's more interested in preserving the comprador class' access to foreign consumer goods than in domestic stability. If the Real is sliding it should let it slide, precisely because it needs to preserve its reserve buffer. It is possible that this all has something to do with the 2014 football world cup and the 2016 olympics. After that, all hell might break loose in the domestic market and the swaps might explode in the BCB's face.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jan 18th, 2014 at 01:09:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose that's the point the FT article is trying to make:
... Gersztein and Alday at BNP Paribas think a reasonable indication of the cost is to net out the central bank's short dollar position through currency swaps from its foreign reserves. After all, it is not only the stock of reserves but also the broader health of the Brazilian economy that affects its ability to pay its debts.
(my emphasis)
That is something investors may wish to keep a close eye on if, as widely predicted, the real continues to weaken and Brazil's fiscal position continues to deteriorate during 2014 and 2015.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sat Jan 18th, 2014 at 02:14:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose that's the point the FT article is trying to make.

Clumsily and without focus.  It appears the BCB is attempting to manage currency by playing with financial markets (which it can do) instead of dealing with the actual foundation of the currency, the domestic economy (which it can't), and is doing so with the acquiescence of the government, which doesn't want to deal with the economy either.  Which supports your conclusion that they are simply manipulating money for the benefit of the moneyed.

by rifek on Thu Jan 30th, 2014 at 11:59:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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