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This is entirely the case, and if you move from a two dimensional (aka lets plot party strength on a right left line)analysis to a three dimensional one (aka let's set up a nationalist/centralist axis and a left/right one) you may see things differently.  But, that's much harder to interpret.  And, I think that you still find that the center has emptied out. So same problem with a real inability to form a viable governing coalition. (And, even to get parties to abstain from voting to allow a minority government to be installed.)

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 10:13:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The collapse of the centre is really the collapse of the Social Democrats. To put some numbers on this, let's look at the sequence of vote shares gained by the PSC from its peak 15 years ago:

2012 14.4%
2010 18.4%
2006 26.8%
2003 31.2%
1999 37.8%

Pretty impressive, is it not?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 10:38:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But the CiU's collapse is similarly impressive, no?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 10:43:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
CiU:

2014 polls (average of last five) 18.5%
2012 30.7%
2010 38.4%
2006 31.5%
2003 30.9%
1999 37.9%

So a fluctuation above 30% until 2012 and a collapse now.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 10:52:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
CiU's is not a secular collapse, it's just ERC recently eating its nationalist lunch.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 11:13:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Which is why I doubt they go into coalition with ERC again. And that.  That wipes out two of the coalitions you mentioned below.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 11:28:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That may well be, but then repeat elections tend to clarify the landscape. So, the question is how would voters react to a hung parliament and a second round of elections. Which parties would drain support to which other parties?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 11:34:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed. I imagine that we only see more polarization.  And I think that the CiU splits open.

In the long run, ERC wins out.  And they opt for a unilateral declaration of independence.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 12:09:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]
How does unilateral independence work, politically and on the ground?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 12:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Probably as well as it did in 1934.

It was an ERC President of the Generalitat that proclaimed the Catalan Republic in 1934.

He was imprisoned and replaced by a military governor, with the Catalan government suspended.

Presumably this time the new governor will not be a general.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 03:52:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My point being, does ERC have, or think they have, strength on the ground to pull off a unilateral declaration of independence? The current independence referendum drive didn't get past Artur Mas' unwillingness to ask Catalan civil servants to carry out illegal orders.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 06:59:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Does politics always have to be rational?


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 07:37:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is, but I think  we can agree these voters didn't leave the PSC for CiU.  PSC is unionist, and moderate.

This collapse of support probably didn't benefit CiU.  These voters most likely walked into either ERC, ICV, or C's. All of which poses accentuates the nationalism issue.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 10:43:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
What do participation rates look like?

In the rest of Europe, collapsing social democratic parties have lost a lot of voters to the Sofa Party, from which they then leak back into assorted left-wing or ugly parties over the course of the next few election cycles.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 02:56:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I don't have the numbers from the early 1980s (which would presumably be very, very high) but from the late 1980s:

1988  59.4%
1992  54.9%
1995  63.6%
1999  59.2%
2003  62.5%
2006  56.0%
2010  58.8%
2012  67.8%

There may be public opinion polling from the CIS (the Spanish government social research body) but I'd have to look. I don't think that the dynamic of decreased participation is as relevant here. I think that austerity is the issue.


And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 04:00:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And now I've found me some toys.

CIS has  opinion polling on public perception of where each party lies on Catalan nationalism, with 1 indicated the least support and 10 the most. From the Nov 2012 numbers:

PPC 1.63
C   2.48
PSC 4.37
ICV 5.62
CIU 7.66
ERC 8.99

 

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Oct 21st, 2014 at 04:14:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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