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I think the observation of the falling centre is spot on, but then what?

In proportional representative democracies the center can fall or at least undergo some transformation from time to time. If you have more then one axis with some strenght forming a majority can be hard. In Sweden we had a transformation in the 20ies, an almost transformation in the around 1980 and some interesting times ahead.

In the 20ies we went from having liberals and socialists forming the left versus conservatives on the right to socialists versus non-socialists. Around 1980 we had a green-nuclear axis that prevented both the soc-dems (nuclear) from ruling and the formation of a stable non-socialist majority (as it was split on the green-nuclear axis).

To have more collapsing collapses we can look at the italian political landscape in the 1990ies when the old centre was wiped of the map and new forces (primarily Berlusconi) rose instead.

So my question is what stable end states are there?

I can think of two.

Catalonian independence. Catalonia breaks with Spain and forms an independent country. Politics goes on in both countrys but the indepence-federalism axis is gone with respect to Catalonia and Spain.

Spain non-austerity. With the removal of austerity the Spanish government can again provide enough material wealth to make indepence a less critical matter. PPC and PSC can make a comeback as the important alternatives.

Of these two, the first is more likely, but perhaps there are more?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Mon Oct 27th, 2014 at 11:28:40 AM EST

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