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The center has fallen in Catalonia, but also in Spain. Corruption cases are finally taking a toll on the ruling PP and the national PSOE shows the same kind of secular decline as the Catalan PSC. Depending on which poll you look at, Podemos is now either in second or third place. Right now, you're looking at the PSOE facing a choice between joining Podemos and United Left in a left coalition, or joining the PP in a grand coalition. But if the decomposition of the current political economy continues for another year, there is every possibility that Podemos will win the general election.

The most toxic scenario is one in which Podemos comes 3rd but it decides that it doesn't want to conform to the convention that in a coalition the larger party has the PM job, and thus to demand that the PSOE make their leader PM in a left coalition, in order to push the PSOE to a grand coalition which will alienate it from its base.

Slightly less toxic is the scenario in which Podemos comes second , and the PSOE rather than join Podemos as a junior partner decides to join a grand coalition.

Of course, a Podemos-PSOE-IU government will send the serious people into a panic, both in Spain and in Europe.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Oct 27th, 2014 at 11:43:13 AM EST
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