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So, fast forward a bit the Spanish end state looks like a new balance with a right that is pro-austerity and (as now) anti-devolution of powers and a left that is anti-austerity and pro-devolution (but not pro Catalan independence.

So as I see it (from afar) we have two scenarios.

In the first the new anti-austerity left wins in Spain, with new prosperity easing the tensions and some form of deal on more devolution (if there are no more powers that can resonably be devolved, this could be symbolic stuff) saves face on both sides. For this to happen Podemos needs to win big enough before ERC wins big enough.

In the second ERC wins big enough in Catalonia and takes it on the road towards independence in conflict with the wishes of PP (or PP-PSOE grand coalition) led austerian Spain. This leads either to Catalan independence or armed conflict.

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by A swedish kind of death on Wed Oct 29th, 2014 at 05:51:14 AM EST
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Perhaps more importantly : an ERC government set on conflict would probably tilt the agenda for national elections towards the question of secession, which would probably favour PP and PSOE over Podemos and other non-traditionals.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Oct 29th, 2014 at 06:32:49 AM EST
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The only argument right now for a PP/PSOE government after next year is the need for a constitutional reform. But they have had many many years to do a reform and they haven't so that argument is just special pleading.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Oct 29th, 2014 at 06:50:30 AM EST
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