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Went looking for SeriousPeople© analysis and found this:

Since a continuation of the current coalition is almost impossible because of Tory commitment to an EU referendum, which the Liberals oppose, Cameron may only be able to lead the next government if his party wins an outright majority or forms an alliance with the Scottish Nationalists, UK Independent Party and other fringe parties.

:blink:

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sat Nov 22nd, 2014 at 11:54:11 AM EST
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Sturgeon doesn't seem to get the message.
THE SNP could team up with parties such as Plaid Cymru and the Greens at Westminster to build a new alliance in a bid to bring an end to the "austerity economics" pursued by the major parties there, Scotland's new First Minister said.

[...]

She stated: "My aim is that the SNP wins the general election in Scotland, and there is every prospect of a hung parliament at Westminster.

"The SNP would never act to put the Tories in power. In these circumstances, our constructive approach is that the SNP will seek common cause in a balanced parliament with progressive forces across the regions of England, Wales and Northern Ireland to rebalance the UK in political and economic terms.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 02:42:00 AM EST
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Except that Sturgeon is a member of the Scottish parliament, but is not at Westminster. Salmond is an MP and is likely to be the leader of an expanded and powerful SNP bloc at Westminster next year.

Sturgeon would not do a deal with Cameron, but Salmond is much more sympathetic to Tory messaging. So the internal politics of the SNP might be a bit fraught next May.

That said, everybody has seen what happened to the LibDems in a Tory coalition, so potential partners are going to be a lot more wary going in.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 04:32:51 AM EST
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I doubt he'll get the chance; if he doesn't win an outright majority the party will replace him with Boris. At which point they'll be tempted to have another election in October.

Meanwhile, if Labour don't win, Miliband will lose the confidence of the party and will be asked to resign. He will limp though that October election, at which Labour will get a drubbing similar to 1983. But there's nobody around with the credibility to rebuild a left leaning party. And the world doesn't need another conservative party, even one led by Ed Balls.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 04:39:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ukip should be taken seriously. But it may not like the experience | Andrew Rawnsley | Comment is free | The Observer

The party's myriad contradictions, splits and flip-flops have been treated as if they do not matter. Ukip has been for massive spending increases and for massive spending cuts; it has been for ultra-low tax for the rich and for higher taxes on luxury goods until it wasn't again; it has been for privatisation of the NHS and against privatisation of the NHS. During the byelection campaign, the Ukip position on whether they would forcibly repatriate migrants from the EU changed in the space of 24 hours. Immigration and withdrawal from the EU are supposed to be their specialist subjects and they can't hold to a consistent line even about that.

This has often escaped the fierce scrutiny that is applied to the traditional parties because Ukip was not seen as a party of potential power.

Well, now it could be. No one from the other parties laughs when Mr Farage conjectures that he could have 20 MPs in the next parliament and hold the balance of power. He won't be prime minister, but there are scenarios in which he could get to choose who is prime minister. With that potential power ought to come the responsibility to explain in detail what he might do with it.

The traditional parties and much of the media are still struggling with how to treat Ukip. Here's an idea. Subject them to the robust interrogation of policies and postures that is applied to every other party that aspires to decide how we are governed. Fewer pictures of Nigel down the pub, more questions about what he would do with power. Ukip wants to be taken seriously. So it should be. But as the Lib Dems have painfully discovered, ultimately there may be nothing more disappointing for Ukip than having its dream come true.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 01:03:35 PM EST
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UKIP will tremble. Neither UKIP voters nor potential UKIP voters read the Observer.
by IM on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 01:17:39 PM EST
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But, as in the US, the voters who tend to vote for the right wing tend neither to know nor care about the actual policies they're "approving", they just like the noise the candidate makes on "issues".

Also, right wingers tend to be more prone to a bit of hypocrisy, they don't actually have to be 100% consistent, so they have more flexibility to shoot from the hip.

But forget ukip; if we're talking about how the media allow themselves to be gulled by a good bloke with a sense of fun and jollity, how does Boris Johnston keep getting away with it? Unless I'm completely missing my guess, this is a man who will be the next leader of the Conservative party, and yet he has barely ever been subject to media scrutiny about his likely policies and sentiments. He blusters, jokes and dissembles, changing the subject with the slippery ease. Yet the opinions he has ventured, which are just as populist, yet even more authoritarian and corporate friendly as Farage's, are far more  shocking than anything Farage says because he is so much more likely to assume real power.

But when he is exposed, as happened on the BBC once, nothing came of it. If anything his popularity seemed to rise.



keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 01:39:10 PM EST
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Subject [UKIP] to the robust interrogation of policies and postures that is applied to every other party that aspires to decide how we are governed.

I needed a hearty laugh.

She believed in nothing; only her skepticism kept her from being an atheist. -- Jean-Paul Sartre

by ATinNM on Sun Nov 23rd, 2014 at 01:40:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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