it has to be Italy (where my hopes are)

Yup, Italy is the fulcrum point. I agree, Spain would do as well too, but I think the Italian state is closer to tipping point though I don't know for sure.

I think the crunch will come in February when President Napolitano will step down and holy hell will break loose around the choice of the next president.

Plus the 5* movement is reformulating, as Beppe says he's tired and has delegated power to younger, cooler blood. Expect a less erratic strategy from them soon as the attention shifts to a set of highly capable new front men (and woman), completely un-prone to the verbal kamikaze excesses of its volatile founder. The cebtre-right and far right are still floundering in the wilderness notwithstanding Salvini's skills, no-one else has any cred, though Berlu is still flapping his gums.

Renzi's turd way troika pandering and fiscal sleight of hand will get old really fast as the Italians cotton on. It already is...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty