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Checking tradingeconomics.com Portugal, Spain, Italy and Greece now all has small surpluses. (France still has a deficit, though it has decreased.) So now should be a good time to leave, as many euros goes in as comes out which decreases the risk of runs and shortages.

This is odd, Germany still has its huge surplus (7.5% in 2014). The eurozone itself shows a distinct surplus for the first time. Checking the numbers:

Euro Area Current Account | 1997-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

Euro Area recorded a Current Account surplus of 31 EUR Billion in September of 2014.

Germany Current Account | 1956-2014 | Data | Chart | Calendar | Forecast

Germany recorded a Current Account surplus of 22300 EUR Million in September of 2014.

So Germany's surplus was about 2/3 of the Eurozones surplus. But who is allowing an undervalued euro? China?

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by A swedish kind of death on Sat Nov 29th, 2014 at 02:49:54 PM EST
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But who is allowing an undervalued euro? China?
This is what I could not anticipate back in 2012 when I wrote about this: that the rest of the world would tolerate a sustained Eurozone current account surplus. But it has.

Now, isn't it interesting that the trade surplus indicates that the Euro is undervalued when everyone outside Germany was screaming bloody murder about the Euro being overvalued?

This is all leading me to question even more any "hydraulic" (to borrow a term from BruceMcF) reasoning about exchange rates, trade balances and the like. The dynamics are more complicated than that.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Nov 30th, 2014 at 08:22:27 AM EST
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