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This seems to be assuming that growth requires more carbon, which doesn't appear true.
Much of what constitutes GDP no longer adds real value. Yet we work ever longer hours and wreck ever more of our ecology to keep increasing it. Pointing out that absurdity is hardly an ideology wanting to return to a simpler age.
By all mean have that massive program, I've been calling for it for years. I still reckon that consumption would better drop in the West if we are going to have a fighting chance. Actually, forget that: even with this, I don't believe that there is any chance at all to get the needed reduction in environmental impact in time, so there will need to be active restoration for decades or even centuries down the line. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
Sure, we'll be poorer in real terms or we will see inflation in the prices of, say, fossil energy. But who cares? A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
Why is it so hard to understand this!?
Three things:
The question of how much energy or carbon emissions does growth require is a fair one. Surely, marginal efficiency improvements while growing are possible. The whole world might repeat the Swedish feat of cutting emissions by 20% in 20 years, while growing by 60% (even if nominally). But ever marginal efficiency improvements do not mean that we can achieve a radically adequate target (even if wrong-headed, fuzzy-thinking opposition is out of the way). The Post-Carbon institute writes in the second reply to Krugman:
Paul Krugman and the Limits of Hubris -- Post Carbon Institute
Energy efficiency can often be improved, but such improvements are subject to the law of diminishing returns: the first five percent of improvement is cheap, the next five percent costs more, and so on.
In any case, the issue deserves more analysis and political discussion -- and wider demonstration of Swedish-type improvement.
This does not hold true for just wholesale switching energy input into the economy. Building a hundred x - reactors, windmills, dams, whatever -is cheaper on a unit basis than building ten. So as long as the underlying resource is sufficient, no problems.
The official ET line is 'Do renewables, raise taxes to redistribute wealth, and everything will be fine."
Consider the possibility that perhaps there's more involved, and the post-war boom was created by a number of distinct circumstances that either don't apply now or only apply partially. Specifically:
There's certainly a case for Keynesian pump priming which can create infrastructure (physical and intellectual) that can sow the seeds for a boom in a decade or two. But it's not an instant fix, and it needs policy decisions that understand the return will take a while.
Obviously we've had the opposite of that, with financialised policies destroying future growth prospects. But I don't think throwing money at the problem ten years ago would have done any more than provided a quick and very temporary growth blip.
Politically, it may be different. It is true that the only recent episode of major drop in inequality came on the back of a boom (although one has to be cautious with regards to the direction of causality there - probably both ways), or rather the bounce from an awful nadir.
But the point of the Keynesian program is not a boom -I do believe we need to reduce total consumption in the West- but for everyone to be employed and to address unsustainability. If we have a system that can only function with strong growth it is bound to struggle mightily (for example, when population starts dropping fast worldwide). Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
With today's political economy, substantial growth is needed just to hide gaps between rentiers and the rest.
Also, don't confuse human nature and the West. Egypt was going mostly sideways for millennia. Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
"Poorer in real terms", "reduce total consumption", "valuable employment" all sounds terrible if you're embedded within the prevailing worldview.
Isn't the infrastructural work required to massively reduce emissions precisely the sort of thing that is ideal as useful Keynesianism?
Welcome to reality! It's so fucking obvious you could explain it to a 5 year old in a few minutes.
Meanwhile, back at Ranchero Oblivio...
How do you spell car-dash-again? Kan she twerk? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
We have thus at least four interacting factors: (1) Economy - which should follow Keynes and prosper; (2) Democracy - which should guard affluence prospects for all; (3) Compound interest - obscure while the economy is growing in a good tempo; (4) Resource limitations - threaten to halt the requisite growth.
When the GDP growth (be it nominal) is anemic, the economy is in trouble if only because the financial interest becomes highly parasitic.
How different is the factor (3) now from the 1930s? Creditors for the public were not that strong, organized?
The elites today have a definite interest in materialization of their ridiculous financial positions. Not letting others to have or enjoy anything is possibly becoming the most realistic way to maintain their relative "worth". And if they have silent Malthusian scare that there won't be enough to share, they are surely not interested in a new Keynesian expansion. Keynesian aspirations are pretty revolutionary then.
The lesson I get is that there are many paths to development, but they all require intelligent government to stimulate capital flows. It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
And there can be much said for that description.
Also: russia and siberia and how the west was won.
The average earnings of U.S. men between 25 and 34 with only a high school diploma have fallen 25% since 1979, according to Census Bureau data. Women in the same category have done better, but their earnings also have fallen. Given that GDP per capita has risen 73% in real terms since 1979 on World Bank data, those are shocking statistics. Their implication is that the value of the labor of people with ordinary skills has gone into a deep decline even as the country and the world has gotten richer. In other words, Thomas Malthus' gloomy prophecies, written in 1798, were not wrong. They were merely early. [...] If a Malthusian problem were to occur, we would expect it to occur first in the rewards of modestly skilled people in the world's highest-cost labor markets, because their work is most easily substitutable and can be undercut by emerging market labor. That appears to be what is happening. In the U.S. at least there is a supply surplus of modestly-skilled workers, driving down wages. Since the labor-participation rate in the workforce has dropped sharply since 2008, and these statistics include only workers who are employed, there is clearly a major supply-demand imbalance.
[...] If a Malthusian problem were to occur, we would expect it to occur first in the rewards of modestly skilled people in the world's highest-cost labor markets, because their work is most easily substitutable and can be undercut by emerging market labor. That appears to be what is happening. In the U.S. at least there is a supply surplus of modestly-skilled workers, driving down wages. Since the labor-participation rate in the workforce has dropped sharply since 2008, and these statistics include only workers who are employed, there is clearly a major supply-demand imbalance.
There is another solution: drastic reduction of population (over whatever period is necessary to accomplish this through incentives and without coercion). If the world's population were one billion instead of eight billion, the amount of land and resources available per unit of labor would be octupled and the environmental damage caused by production would be reduced by seven-eighths. Similarly, the amount of capital available per worker would be greatly increased (albeit probably not by a factor of eight), while the knowledge base per worker would octuplet (although the rate of adding to it wouldn't). With labor suddenly scarce, even at the modestly skilled level, the returns to labor would be greatly increased.
Now why don't you state an actual case and attempt to support it with some actual evidence, instead of making these half-baked connect-the-dots insinuations that rely on the reader's imagination to fill in the yawning chasms in what I shall charitably call your reasoning?
Your zero ratings are hilarious.
There is still growth of the world population. It has slowed down,but it is still growing. Even the brutal one child policy of the chinese has just slowed their population growth.
There is no "population reduction".
Surely, the null hypothesis (no attention to Malthus, just dumb political, social-economic dynamics) cannot be rejected at the 5% level. But so were the assumptions of a Thanksgiving turkey.
That isn't a bad thing, though.
Oh, btw you asked earlier about typical children per women before industrialisation. Looking at Gapminder you have most nations between five and seven and all but two between four and eight. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
The influence of industrialization on birth rates is definitely not artificial - but it could be analyzed (not necessarily publicly), artificially enhanced if some interest exists.
Or does Ridley back it up with more then the catchphrases he uses at his blog?
Because his blog was not reassuring.
The Rational Optimist
Yet, bizarrely, however much things improve from the way they were before, people still cling to the belief that the future will be nothing but disastrous. In this original, optimistic book, Matt Ridley puts forward his surprisingly simple answer to how humans progress, arguing that we progress when we trade and we only really trade productively when we trust each other. The Rational Optimist will do for economics what Genome did for genomics and will show that the answer to our problems, imagined or real, is to keep on doing what we've been doing for 10,000 years -- to keep on changing.
Progress through trade. So what is his view on progress?
Greens take the moral low ground
The OECD's economic models behind the two scenarios project that the average person alive in 2100 will be earning an astonishing four to seven times as much money - corrected for inflation - as she does today. That's a 300-600% increase in real pay. This should enable posterity to buy quite a bit of protection for itself and the planet against any climate change that does show up. So we are being asked to make sacrifices today to prevent the possibility of what may turn out to be pretty small harms to very wealthy people in the future. By contrast, the cost of climate policies is already falling most heavily on today's poor. Subsidies for renewable energy have raised costs of heating and transport disproportionately for the poor. Subsidies for biofuels have raised food prices by diverting food into fuel, tipping millions into malnutrition and killing about 190,000 people a year. The refusal of many rich countries to fund aid for coal-fired electricity in Africa and Asia rather than renewable projects (and in passing I declare a financial interest in coal mining) leaves more than a billion people without access to electricity and contributes to 3.5 million deaths a year from indoor air pollution caused by cooking over open fires of wood and dung.
By contrast, the cost of climate policies is already falling most heavily on today's poor. Subsidies for renewable energy have raised costs of heating and transport disproportionately for the poor. Subsidies for biofuels have raised food prices by diverting food into fuel, tipping millions into malnutrition and killing about 190,000 people a year. The refusal of many rich countries to fund aid for coal-fired electricity in Africa and Asia rather than renewable projects (and in passing I declare a financial interest in coal mining) leaves more than a billion people without access to electricity and contributes to 3.5 million deaths a year from indoor air pollution caused by cooking over open fires of wood and dung.
Let the rich people of the future worry about ecology! They can buy it, they will have so much money! And poor people in Africa needs more coal! Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
I thought of writing a diary on Ridley's "The Rational Optimist" some 2 years ago. Now I do not have it by hand. Some of the green moral bashing was there already. His article at WIRED is a summary enough. There is a lot of commentary out there, from Bill Gates to George Monbiot.
Yeah, the population was growing furnished as never, things were improving dramatically (until a few years ago) - thanks to...
It was neither capitalism nor communism that made possible the progress and pathologies (total war, the unprecedented concentration of global wealth, planetary destruction) of the modern age. It was coal, followed by oil and gas. The meta-trend, the mother narrative, is carbon-fuelled expansion. Our ideologies are mere subplots. Now, with the accessible reserves exhausted, we must ransack the hidden corners of the planet to sustain our impossible proposition [...] As the philosopher Michael Rowan points out, the inevitabilities of compound growth mean that if last year's predicted global growth rate for 2014 (3.1%) is sustained, even if we miraculously reduced the consumption of raw materials by 90%, we delay the inevitable by just 75 years. Efficiency solves nothing while growth continues.
As the philosopher Michael Rowan points out, the inevitabilities of compound growth mean that if last year's predicted global growth rate for 2014 (3.1%) is sustained, even if we miraculously reduced the consumption of raw materials by 90%, we delay the inevitable by just 75 years. Efficiency solves nothing while growth continues.
To check the theory of continous economic crisis in low birth countries decreasing population, I checked Japan. (Other good candidates for the hypothesis is welcomed.) Birth rates were declining through the 70s and 80s reaching 1.6 before the 90s crisis hit. They then decline even steeper to 1.3 but are now increasing.
I also checked where Italy is going with its famous low birth rates (around 1.2 at the turn of the millenium). Since crisis struck and GDP/capita started going down, birth rates has gone up and are now at 1.5.
Crisis also postpones the generational shift in high birth countries if it increases child mortatlity, as the shift depends heavily on the decrease of child mortality, in particular first child survival.
So as a conspiracy theory, global economic crisis to decrease global population seems rather hamfisted. In particular since the curves were pointing in the right direction before the crisis and there is a significant risk that birth rates in high birth countries will go down slower as a result, giving a higher world population then if there had been no crisis.
Also a real conspiracy has better tools with a proven track record to decrease world population: in high birth countries, decrease child mortality through affordable and good medicine and promote economic opportunities outside the home. In low birth countries give women a lot of economic opportunities if they don't have kids and stick them with most (or all) of the responsibility if they do have kids. This way leads to slower growth in hgih birth countries and decreasing population in low birth countries. And it actually works.
So if there is a conspiracy at work, it is incompetent. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Competency in population control must be a tricky business. A lot depends on how much experience the conspirators would have. If the task group was just formed in the 20th century, more direct and clumsy attempts are expected. If wars, famines are the natural methods of whatever elites, some PR maneuvers are needed to distance the public from the normal civilized peace and prosperity of the post-WWII years.
So I have to assume that the conspirators have a taste for empirical data gathering, trying out various modes of economic crises (and perhaps confusing youngsters about relationship building, etc). All that could be just a starter for some directly competent action. A period of social-political chaos would be much more effective with a majority of population in economic straits already. The next two years should add more clarity.
Italy and other ~1.5 rate countries would not be the focus of global population control. They would be role models even with 0.2 recoveries.
But it is the 1.2-2.1 countries where you get lower birth rates from economic crisis. Or at least I thought so, Italy is a counterexample. In high birth countries wars, famines and economic crisis delays the shift to low birth, thus stretching out the period of increase.
With policies that are effectively working towards a larger population by undermining the decrease in the remaining high birth countries, I don't see any evidence of a conspiracy for lower population. And when it comes to the different calls for lower population you seem prone to read, similar calls when it comes to colored or otherwise underclass populations has been going on for at least a hundred years, ever since birth rats started to go down in Europe. So no evidence there either.
Do you have anything that actually points towards the existence of such a conspiracy? Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
The overpopulation problem must have been predating Malthus on various local levels. Some elite lines could have developed natural or sophisticated competences hell knows when - though not particularly the Western, I may guess. On the other hand, wild booms and busts could be a viable less dirty way to reset populations for some time. If this economic mess has that deep meaning, something should follow still under Obama.
Let's take it easy:
Pointless environmental restrictions, such as New York State's ban on fracking, can be scrapped, maximizing blue-collar job opportunities and reducing energy costs for domestic manufacturing.
Fail... 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
The Prudent Bear: The Bear's Lair: Malthus was just 220 years early
With labor suddenly scarce, even at the modestly skilled level, the returns to labor would be greatly increased.
Yeah, when we had a world population of one billion labor was scarce and and returns to labor great.
The modestly skilled, both in the U.S. and in emerging markets, would be able, through mass robotization, to enjoy lifestyles of which their ancestors of today can only dream.
And then ecological footprint per capita could go on growing forever and ever. Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
Malthus' basic prediction of human starvation and misery was based on the maximum possible agricultural output increasing at an arithmetical progression while population increased at a geometric progression.
Are we discussing a Asimov novel now?
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