Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
In my opinion the Ukraine isn't in a position to prevent Crimea from being re-annexed by Russia and the West will only make a token protest.

After that, I rather think that Eastern Ukraine, especially those provinces East and South of the Kharkiv - Dnepropetrovsk line will soon be petitioning Putin to be integrated into Russia.

At that point, if Putin is canny, he'll wait. Ukraine is still massively divided between large groups of people who still refuse to concede anyone else has a valid viewpoint; I doubt that there is the capability to return to any recognisable form of democracy. Too many of the  disparate groups think they deposed Yanukovytch to put themselves in power.

Which means there will be conflict, possibly not civil war but a fracturing of the civic state. And that means problems.

All Putin has to do is wait for the distress calls and he'll get most of Ukraine back, bit by bit. And the bits he doesn't get within the year may be surrounded and have to give in anyway.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Mar 2nd, 2014 at 03:53:41 PM EST
I agree, Putin is patient, and munching popcorn while capitalism's contradictions tear it apart.

For example in Obama's right ear he has the MIC whipping up a reheated cold war, and in his left he has the BigBizNiz who have invested billions into Russia and don't want sanctions.

Russians are Asian enough to know how to be patient, compared to us.

(Outrageous generalisations dept)

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Mar 31st, 2014 at 09:55:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series