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The system of center and periphery does not predict that the majority of conflicts will be between center and periphery. In fact quite the contrary! The majority of conflicts will be between countries at the same tier in the trade system, backed by higher-tier countries hoping to shift the borders of their spheres of influence, and themselves using lower-tier countries as pawns and sources of legitimizing speechifying.

For the simple reason that a straight-up center vs. periphery conflict ends with the periphery getting curb-stomped. That's why they're the periphery and not the center.

What the center/periphery model does predict is that there will be more conflict between countries which do not share a suzerain than between countries that do (for example, there should be greater animosity between Belarus (a Russian client) and Poland (a German client) than between Poland and Hungary (both German clients).

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Mar 31st, 2014 at 04:06:18 PM EST
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