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Far as I can see, Ukraines role as middle-man in supplying EU with gas and Russia with markets, should make a failed state scenario there unwanted by both the EU and Russia. This, and the fact that Russia appears satisfied with controlling Crimea should point towards things settling down along the current lines.

However, if the actors were that rational, bringing Ukraine to the brink of civil war in the first place would not have happened. So, there is that.

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by A swedish kind of death on Mon Mar 10th, 2014 at 03:47:43 PM EST
telecommando putsch, an artificial crisis, created a la naomi klein, after crashing the ukraine economy the IMF will move in and the corporations will buy up manufacturing and key businesses like telecoms, utilities for pennies.

then some fracking courtesy of the usual suspects, and mission accomplished!

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by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Mar 10th, 2014 at 03:57:17 PM EST
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Cross-border gas pipelines are regulated by evolving de facto or formal legal frameworks. Basically, a country has reduced sovereignty on the land some 100km of either side of a pipeline. Ukraine was ever only so much independent...
by das monde on Tue Mar 11th, 2014 at 08:00:52 AM EST
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The EU seems decided to import its gas from Norway and the US if that's what it takes to hurt Putin. Of course, without its role as gas transit country, Ukraine's economic future is even bleaker. But who cares about Ukraine's economic future? Not Brussels or Frankfurt, that's for sure.

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by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Mar 12th, 2014 at 06:50:51 PM EST
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