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I remember seeing some sort of a reference to the sniper's kit.  I'm imagining that their firearms may be more indicative of origin than any anything else that they had on them.  This is how they id'd that the troops in Crimea were walking around using Russian kit.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 02:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I remember seeing some sort of a reference to the sniper's kit

Upthread an article with a quote from Olga Bogomolets before the intercepted call names the Dragunov sniper rifle. Could be, but those seem pretty widespread.

the troops in Crimea were walking around using Russian kit

Some even gave themselves away, and I think the Guardian reporter on the ground reported at one meeting at an Ukrainian base, the officers knew each other.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 03:27:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I looked above.  I get from what Bogomolets was saying that they id'd the rifle from the  caliber of bullets recovered.   Which interested me, because that size is almost identical to NATO standard rounds.  So.... again no real information.

I think that an investigation is in order, and that a joint US/Russian investigation could actually clam things down.  Because it focuses people on what happened that day, not what they can do next to make their point.  More jaw-jaw, less war war. Halting further escalation would benefit everyone. This whole situation is starting to feel like the Guns of August.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 04:52:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
they id'd the rifle from the  caliber of bullets recovered

I also looked at what the yellow armband snipers carried, and apparently so did the Maidan witnesses making the claim.

Snipers sow fear and death in Kiev's urban conflict | Reuters

Protesters said snipers, armed with Soviet-made SVD or SVS weapons and given cover by armed police, used high ground near the October Palace to shoot down onto protesters who earlier that day had advanced up the hill to reclaim lost positions.

Of the two types of weapons they appear to carry, one does resemble the SVDS variant of the Dragunov. But, as indicated, Dragunov variants are used all across the former Soviet Union, so hard to make an identification based on that.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 05:33:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Surely everyone involved would have been working with more-or-less the same weapons, with the better equipped Russian units having more modern stuff than everyone else? The Russian troops were a bit obvious because they'd been issued shiny new gear.
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 04:57:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, this is how they pinned down that troops in the Crimea were either Russian, or using Russian equipment.  

The unmarked but professionally equipped soldiers are almost certainly Russian "spetsnaz" units, according to Igor Sutyagin, a Russian military expert, who was imprisoned for several years by the Kremlin as a spy and is now a London-based analyst at the think-tank Rusi ...

Pictures of troops blockading Ukrainian facilities show them wearing izlom camouflage - obtainable in shops but used almost exclusively by Russian special forces. Many of the soldiers are also pictured carrying far more specialised kit: VSS Vintorez sniper rifles and NRS-2 knives, both standard-issue spetsnaz equipment.

If we can narrow down the weapons used that day at the end of February, that narrows the list of suspects. And it seems that there is widespread support on both sides for an investigation. By forcing both sides to wait for the results of that investigation, I think that you provide a context for things to de-escalate.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 05:13:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
There should be an investigation; but I showed better evidence than the guns, which could be used by any shadow force the sides can imagine.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 05:22:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
but I showed better evidence than the guns

I've been skimming, so I'll have to read back through.  

I'm deeply worried about the jingoism on all sides about this one. An actual shooting war involving the United States and Russian Federation would be very, very bad.

My views are probably colored by being here in the US, and seeing things Fox News asking why we aren't at war with Russia yet. Or even inflammatory piles of shit like this on Daily Kos.

The idea that what happened in Kiev was a CIA operation is a reach to far for me.  That someone in Right Sector, or the like, got the bright idea that a final provocation was needed.  That's something I'd like to see excluded as a possibility through a thorough investigation.  

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 06:05:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it may be a reach, but it's possible that the right in america is pumping the war-urge so to put obama into a position where he could be seen to massively fail, whether he goes peace or war he loses.

another semi-suicidal political ploy, like the budget obstructionism.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 07:08:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I really don't think that there s anyone dumb enough to think that this is a good idea in the US intelligence community.  (Which confirms how incredibly stupid arranging a false flag attack like this is, if that is what happened.)

I do think that a substantial part of the Republican party has a hard on for escalation, because they think that they can use this as a talking point for building LNG facilities to export to Europe.  Newt Gingrich was all over this on CNN.....

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Thu Mar 6th, 2014 at 08:40:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
ah, another piece of the puzzle falls into place.

newt, holy cow, is he the best they got?

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Mar 7th, 2014 at 12:58:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]
My views are probably colored by being here in the US, and seeing things Fox News asking why we aren't at war with Russia yet.

Yes, the warming-up New Cold War is full on in the media. Worse: in Europe, too, the media is for escalation, and that even against their own pro-negotiation governments. But they don't think about what they want the governments to do, to achieve what, not to mention thinking about unintended consequences like a runaway escalation. This morning I saw an interview with an Austrian government representative who tried to bring this point across very carefully, and had to repeat it multiple times to a clearly dissatisfied public TV journalist.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Fri Mar 7th, 2014 at 04:59:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
DoDo:
This morning I saw an interview with an Austrian government representative who tried to bring this point across very carefully, and had to repeat it multiple times to a clearly dissatisfied public TV journalist.

this is unfortunately becoming the norm, constant leading questions that breathlessly attempt to corner the subject into going beyond what he says into speculative territory of what the worst thing that could/will happen would be. there's a kind of obsessive compulsion to amp everything up into the scariest possible level.

us? but we are only reporting! media is out of control in the same way big banks or the MIC are. coincidentally...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Mar 7th, 2014 at 05:11:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Bildt is out in force, really cranking up the old Rysskräck. Recently he called Yanukovych a quisling for fleeing and begging nother country to bring him back to power. Bildt really needs to read up on our western neighbour and which government it was that went into exile.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Sat Mar 8th, 2014 at 02:18:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I've been skimming, so I'll have to read back through.

I meant the very first post in this thread (Snipers from the SBU, duh). Now I found further confirmation in a Spiegel article from three days ago; from an anonymously interviewed Ukrainian oligarch who fled to Moscow (Note: "ALFA unit" was the inofficial name of the KGB hit teams, inherited by post-Soviet successors):

Post Yanukovych Ukraine Looks to Avoid Past Pitfalls - SPIEGEL ONLINE

Oleg can effortlessly recite the names of section heads responsible for issues pertaining to Russia and Ukraine in the foreign ministries of Western European capitals. He knows them all. He soberly recounts how Europe rebuffed him and his delegation while the Kremlin ratcheted up the economic pressure on Ukraine in recent years. "The EU should have gotten involved," he says.

Then Oleg explains the preparations made by Yanukovych to storm Independence Square, the location of the mass protests that ultimately brought down his government. Oleg says he knows that fighters from the elite ALFA unit were responsible for setting fire to opposition headquarters and that ALFA snipers opened fire on demonstrators from the rooftops of surrounding buildings. "Everything went according to plan. But then Yanukovych suddenly flinched and ordered the offensive to be stopped," Oleg says.

He says that when foreign ministers Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Laurent Fabius and Radoslaw Sikorski spent the night negotiating with Yanukovych on February 20-21, the Ukrainian president's aides were busily preparing his escape. "They packed up suitcases and boxes. In the end, the helicopters were so heavy that they could hardly take off," Oleg says.



*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Fri Mar 7th, 2014 at 12:55:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
it's de gold wot does that, really tweaks the old fuel consumption too.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Fri Mar 7th, 2014 at 01:01:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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