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A big market for one, a grand strategy for the other? Is Merkel going to aborgate the agreement to set up Yuan clearing in Frankfort because Russia might incidentally benefit from the rising status of the Yuan as a world reserve currency? I don't think so.

China has the world's second largest economy by domestic product and its relative size is rising. China is a net exporter to the world. Presently China has huge foreign exchange reserves. By way of comparison, after WW II the USA had most of the world's then official reserve currency, gold, and the eurodollar market was created out of US$ that were retained abroad. After the end of gold convertability the US$ retained its status as the key world currency even as exchange rates fluctuated. Traders learned to deal with that volatility using forwards and futures and a series of major currency crosses and minor crosses emerged.

China is now in a position to see the Yuan become a rival to the US$. The chief obstacle has been the lack of a direct FX-Yuan conversion system in non-Asian financial centers. That is changing with China's central bank and government setting up Yuan exchanges in London, Frankfort, Toronto, Vancouver, Taiwan, and Singapore, in addition to China itself and Hong Kong. Additionally, China has been signing bilateral trade agreements with major trading countries such as India, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela and Russia, and the trades are settled in Yuan without reference to the US$. However, if a country needed US$s China would most certainly be able to provide them from their US$ trillion+ reserves.

With these bilateral currency exchange agreements in the bag and an existing, large world trade centering on China the capstone of this emerging currency exchange system would be an alternate banking settlement system that is beyond the reach of the USA. The use of the current settlement system by the USA as a means of economic warfare by the USA against Russia will naturally accelerate the development of such a system.    

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 09:35:21 AM EST
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Gold trading to open up to foreigners in Shanghai

Beijing has promised to make the yuan convertible under the capital account in the zone but has yet to give the go-ahead on this step to institutions and individuals based in the zone.

A liberalised capital account could let foreign investors trade yuan-denominated equities, financial futures and commodity futures - all of which are now off-limits to them. But financial regulators remain concerned over the prospect of a surge in hot money inflows prompted by a fully convertible yuan.

The Shanghai Futures Exchange set up a 5 billion yuan (HK$6.3 billion) subsidiary, Shanghai International Energy Exchange, in the free-trade zone in November last year. Yuan-denominated crude oil futures will be traded on the exchange.

Foreign investors will be allowed to participate in crude oil futures trading as the mainland strives to gain pricing power on the key energy product.



Amnesia and Gaza Genocide
by Oui on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 10:22:31 AM EST
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So far China has been pursuing a three track currency program. The first track is domestic and is strongly controlled by the government, but China is starting to allow a degree of private sector influence on valuations as a signal to public sector prices, that is the second track. The third track is Hong Kong, where currency and futures trading is at a premium to prices in China. China could well be moving most of the foreign trade into the public track, but, for now, still has the government to government agreements.
See Renminbi internationalisation and China's financial development by Robert McCauley of the Bank for International Settlements. This was one of the reading assignments in Perry Mehrling's Money and Banking course.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 10:56:29 AM EST
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