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A big market for one, a grand strategy for the other? Is Merkel going to aborgate the agreement to set up Yuan clearing in Frankfort because Russia might incidentally benefit from the rising status of the Yuan as a world reserve currency? I don't think so.

China has the world's second largest economy by domestic product and its relative size is rising. China is a net exporter to the world. Presently China has huge foreign exchange reserves. By way of comparison, after WW II the USA had most of the world's then official reserve currency, gold, and the eurodollar market was created out of US$ that were retained abroad. After the end of gold convertability the US$ retained its status as the key world currency even as exchange rates fluctuated. Traders learned to deal with that volatility using forwards and futures and a series of major currency crosses and minor crosses emerged.

China is now in a position to see the Yuan become a rival to the US$. The chief obstacle has been the lack of a direct FX-Yuan conversion system in non-Asian financial centers. That is changing with China's central bank and government setting up Yuan exchanges in London, Frankfort, Toronto, Vancouver, Taiwan, and Singapore, in addition to China itself and Hong Kong. Additionally, China has been signing bilateral trade agreements with major trading countries such as India, Australia, Brazil, Chile, Venezuela and Russia, and the trades are settled in Yuan without reference to the US$. However, if a country needed US$s China would most certainly be able to provide them from their US$ trillion+ reserves.

With these bilateral currency exchange agreements in the bag and an existing, large world trade centering on China the capstone of this emerging currency exchange system would be an alternate banking settlement system that is beyond the reach of the USA. The use of the current settlement system by the USA as a means of economic warfare by the USA against Russia will naturally accelerate the development of such a system.    

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 09:35:21 AM EST
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