Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
Display:
No, the status of your currency is not based on perception. It is based on your place in the pecking order of your trade bloc, and your trade bloc's place in the pecking order of the great game.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 11:19:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But following ARGeezer's argument, the US$ status as a reserve currency suffered a blow at the hands of Russia in Syria, for instance, where Putin of all people had to rescue Obama from the punitive expedition he was being drawn into by his clients.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 02:19:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And there is a very big difference between being in effective control of all of the world's settlement systems and having a bifurcated settlement system with one part somewhat smaller but growing and the other larger but diminishing. China and Russia are still both growing and capable of high growth rates, not least because they are not hamstrung by ideologies supportive of 'austerity' and massive internal distributive inefficiencies. China is the second largest economy and growing at 7%+/year and Russia, on the basis of purchasing power parity, is the number five economy and could well again grow at several percent per year, while the nations with which China has signed bilateral trade agreements with settlement in Yuan include Brazil, Russia, India and South Africa for starters.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 04:45:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China is a hot mess.  For one thing, there's a massive strike wave that's gone largely unreported by Western media.  

This feeds into the second issue, wage inflation.  While Europe is staring down deflation, Chinese industry is facing rising wages in industry.  In the five years after the economic crisis (2009-2013) Chinese wage in manufacturing have been rising by 15% a year on average. By 2013, annual wages in manufacturing have risen to the equivalent of $6,660. Run that out into the mid 2020s, and the manufacturing wage in China converges with US rates.  Of course, Chinese productivity is a fraction that of the US, so the convergence is actually much sooner.

Now compare China to Mexico.

Manufacturing wages, adjusted for Mexico's superior worker productivity, are likely to be 30 percent lower than in China by 2015. China's wages have soared. They were about one-quarter as high as Mexico's in 2000 but are catching up rapidly and will be slightly higher by 2015. And labor productivity remains higher in Mexico, even though the gap is narrowing. The crossover point was 2012, when unit labor costs in China (i.e., wages adjusted for productivity) grew to equal those in Mexico. By 2015, Mexico will be around 29 percent less expensive.
 

In short, China is in no position to challenge the reserve status of the US dollar. For several years, Chinese central bankers have been eyeing their horde of US dollar reserves with unease.  If you or I convert dollars to yuan, it isn't going to change the exchange rate.  If Chinese central bankers do.  That will lead to a significant devaluation of the US dollar against the yuan.  Which both means that Chinese investments in the US lose value relative to China, and that the wage inflation problem escalates.  All that an attack on the  reserve status of the US dollar would do is hasten the collapse of Chinese industry. Doing that would pop the Chinese real estate bubble, and lead to the collapse of  a number of banks.  

Again. In short.  There is absolutely zero chance that China willing participates in an effort to attack the the dollar.

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Sun Apr 27th, 2014 at 07:37:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
China was suppressing wages for a long time - This is a correction, and a needed one. I wouldn't expect those hikes to continue at that pace beyond the point where their productivity and pay get back into balance. Which we will be able to detect because their trade balance starts looking less stupid.
by Thomas on Mon Apr 28th, 2014 at 04:46:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I WOULD expect that this will be the stimulus for a long overdue change in the growth plan for China into one that emphasizes the infrastructure that promotes productivity of its industry and labor force and deals with its environmental problems. And that would be an excellent development. Building quality housing that is affordable to workers and a network of health care facilities to serve that population along with switching out of coal for energy, providing affordable transit to get them from home to work, school and shopping in addition to high speed regional rail and instead of elegant looking structures in vacant cities - to invoke cliches.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2014 at 11:01:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, when you turn out to not have quite as much capacity to mount colonial punitive expeditions as your position in the trade system implies, then you will see your terms of trade deteriorate.

But there is some way from seeing your terms of trade deteriorate to losing reserve currency status. Just like there is some way between shedding unprofitable fringe colonies and losing your empire altogether.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2014 at 03:04:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]
"...then you will see your terms of trade deteriorate."

That is the whole point I am trying to make, long with the point that an alternative FX settlement system not controlled by the USA will greatly diminish the power of the USA to conduct economic warfare. That system does not yet exist but is clearly developing. It is very unwise to risk accelerating that development just to make the current US administration look strong. If US actions in Ukraine continue on the current course that seems a real danger.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."

by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 28th, 2014 at 04:12:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Display:

Occasional Series