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As I wrote downthread, his popularity is between 40% and 45%, hardly the most popular in Europe...

Regarding the article, it makes some sense, but it glosses over too many details of the history of Orbán's march to power for my taste, it completely glosses over the economic populist angle (even though economic policy dominated both Fidesz's government activity and its election campaign), and the final paragraph on Trianon is IMHO off to la-la-land. In more detail on the last:

  • The Trianon borders (not to mention the Trianon borders minus modern Hungary) include more non-ethnic-Hungarians than ethnic Hungarians today, and the largest ethnic-Hungarian-majority area – in Transylvania – is disconnected from Hungary proper, making irredentist dreams completely unrealistic, and Orbán is fully aware of that.
  • Getting extra votes is a much lesser and much more cynical motive to give citizenship to ethic Hungarians in neighbouring countries. In fact for Orbán it's no problem at all if the new citizens move to Hungary proper (thereby further reducing any chance of border revision).
  • So far only a minority of ethnic Hungarians in neighbouring countries requested citizenship, and even less voted. Part of the reason is that the relationship of their organisations and Fidesz is rather strained: long ago Fidesz tried to use them for domestic purposes, then attempted to topple them by funding rival organisations, which only achieved the splitting of the ethnic Hungarian vote (the Orbán-supported ones failed to beat the main ones and failed at list vote thresholds).
  • In spite of the nationalist rhetoric, Orbán built strategic relations with leaders of neighbouring countries. His good relationship with Romania's similarly populist President Traian Băsescu went as far as telling his Transylvanian supporters to vote for him. As for Slovakia, he recently agreed on a new pipeline with PM Robert Fico (whose populism is nationalist, too).


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Apr 12th, 2014 at 03:41:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I checked some other leaders. Flood-crisis-hit David Cameron was at 49% two months ago; Merkel is at 72%. What is the approval rating of the Scandinavian leaders?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sat Apr 12th, 2014 at 04:20:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Manuel Valls is running at about 60%... (honeymoon). François Hollande about 18%...

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 04:19:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did Valls get a bump? Because I found polls from a few months ago in which he crashed down from his onetime highs of 60–70% to Orbán's level at around 40%.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:04:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The IFOP poll for the Journal du Dimanche measures the approval rating of the current President and Prime Minister. This is the first measure of Valls's popularity in this role, and he rates 58%.

Unsurprisingly, it's on the left that he's least popular... Valls's ratings according to the political sympathies of the people polled :

PS : 79%
UDI (centrist) : 60%
UMP : 58%
FDG :  50%

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:27:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Ah, I found the poll aggregating page Manuel Valls - Popularité des personnalités politiques - Sondages en France. It seems that rather than big swings, there are truly major differences between pollsters. All of these are early April polls, with figures showing positive vs. negative opinion (and the past high of positive opinion in parentheses):
  • CSA/Les Echos / Radio Classique: 41% : 47% (November 2013: 58%)
  • Sofres/Figaro Magazine: 46% : 41% (January 2014: 47%)
  • OpinionWay/Clai/Metronews/LCI: 47% : 43% (February 2013: 60%)
  • Ifop/PARIS MATCH: 58% : 37% (October 2012: 75%)


*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 10:26:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, the "honeymoon".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:41:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Still, 45% of the popular vote is a massive support.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 12:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]
But we shifted back from Orbán to Fidesz, and a 61% turnout and 27% of all eligible voters isn't massive... we're running in circles. What exactly do you want to get at? Do you have some grand theory of Fidesz's victory?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 01:35:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I mean, other than what you proposed here and what was in the article you linked about the supposed primacy of historical baggage? Let me hammer another nail into the coffin of that theory. If a 94-year-old national trauma is supposed to have such a strong influence, then surely the traumas of Russian or Russia-allied boots on Hungarian soil in 1849, 1919 and 1944–1990 should support an even stronger gut-level Russophobia, no? So why have this election's Fidesz voters accepted Orbán's 180-degree turn vs. Putin and a new €10 billion debt to Russia with a shrug?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 01:46:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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