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In the list vote, the greens just passed the 5% limit:

  • Fidesz 45.1%
  • opposition alliance 25.2%
  • Jobbik 21.1%
  • LMP 5.0%

With Budapest votes still coming in, the opposition alliance and LMP are bound to rise a little more. In seats, it looks like Fidesz is just at the margin of two-thirds majority (having swept all but some Budapest districts and one countryside city with a Socialist major).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Apr 6th, 2014 at 05:18:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems we now have American conditions in the vote count, too, with still only 99% counted in the morning. The results won't change much, though:

Party/groupDirectionVote shareChangeSeats
Total/turnout 61.2%-3.1199
Fideszright-populist44.5%-8.3133
Alliancesocialist+liberal+green26.0%+4.038
Jobbikfar-right20.5%+4.923
LMPgreen5.3%-2.25
Workers' Partycommunist0.8%+0.50

(For the Alliance, I calculated the change is vs. the combined 2010 result of the Socialists (MSzP) and the neoliberal-conservative MDF.)

The least talked-about and most sordid fact about the election remains the low turnout.

Showing how the system became even more unfair, Fidesz just barely defended its two-thirds parliamentary majority with an eight percentage points lower share of the list votes, losing to the Alliance in only 10 of the 106 single-member election districts (eight of those in Budapest). Their list vote result includes winning 95% of the new ethnic-Hungarian vote abroad, which is still being counted. There are two single-member election districts with very close results (gaps of around 300 votes), with the Alliance's candidate ahead in one and Fidesz's in the other. If the latter result would flip to the Alliance on a recount, Fidesz would lose the two-thirds majority, but I don't bet on that.

In spite of the focus of the campaign on the urban working class, the Alliance candidates seem to have carried the vote in most of the plattenbau districts, and the most significant voter movement has been a further Fidesz to Jobbik swing in the villages. This means that unless there will be further major shifts until local elections in a few months, there will be a lot of far-right majors in the villages.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 7th, 2014 at 03:47:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
A correction and an addition.

In the district that would need to flip in the final count (due on Saturday only...) for Fidesz to lose the two-thirds majority, the Fidesz candidate's advantage is just 22 votes, with at least two thousand votes remaining.

I refrained to discuss scandals, but this is the district of a Socialist local leader (replaced in the last minute) whom the government media exposed two months before the elections for having an undeclared bank deposit in Austria. I tentatively place this scandal in the blow-out-of-proportion category, because it seems Fidesz tried everything (including apparent forgery) to point into the direction that this must have been a party slush fund rather than private tax evasion. What I find most noteworthy, beyond the effect on the elections, is that (1) there are still Socialists dumb enough to believe that Fidesz won't find their shady business and exploit it to the maximum, (2) the leadership is still incapable of filtering out such people.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 8th, 2014 at 11:32:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]
For some reason the result is still not official. However, the result is now final in that narrow district, the 22 vote gap widened to 60 votes, thus Fidesz maintained its two-thirds majority.

The near-final count of list votes includes nearly 130,000 votes from abroad (who are overwhelmingly new double citizens in neighbouring countries), with an unchanged 95% margin for Fidesz. Compared to the result for Hungary proper, this boosted Fidesz's result by 1.5 percentage points (that is, a 3.0 point net increase of the difference with the total opposition).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:12:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The strange thing is that Fidesz won even though its main campaign theme failed to draw the intended audience, achieving more by suppressing the vote (discouraging opposition voters) and of course by skewing the election system even more.

It appears the energy price cuts (in combination with the end of recession, the anti-IMF "freedom fight" and the pro-Fidesz televised mass "protests") did reinvigorate a large part of the middle-class voters Fidesz lost in the first two years of its government. However, that didn't work against Jobbik in the villages, nor did it shake the center-left's hold on Budapest's poorer districts (which was briefly lost in 2010 but re-established in polls soon after). This includes the southern district of Csepel, whose major Fidesz tasked with spearheading the "energy price battle", but he lost his single-member district against an unknown former NGO activist.

Then again, I long contend that people tend to vote according to party lines even in single-member election districts, and indeed Fidesz voters even re-elected one of the main beneficiaries of the tobacco shop franchise scam (the selling of tobacco products now can only be sold by specialised shops which in theory had to compete for permissions, but most went to Fidesz insiders).

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 08:37:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There are two more factors of Fidesz victory worth to point out.

The supporters Fidesz could mobilise for its pro-government "protests" were predominantly rural old people (who are socially conservative and have public TV news as their primary news source). Orbán apparently took notice because in contrast to benefit cuts, there was a substantial increase of pensions before the elections.

The trend of low turnout and suppressed left-wing vote was especially pronounced in ghettoised Roma villages: turnouts as low as 20% but overwhelming Fidesz majorities. In past elections, there were persistent allegations of vote-buying and heavy-duty geto-out-the-vote exercises by both Fidesz and the Socialists (albeit not proven in court), boosted by the political prostitution of Roma organizations (the largest of which made the wrong bet in 2002 by allying with the then losing Fidesz, but stuck with them).

This time, the Socialists had nothing to offer, while Fidesz turned long-term jobless benefits recipients into forced-labourers under a "public works" program, and these are employed under the (mostly Fidesz-dominated) local governments. So this time there were stories of pressure on the "public works employees" to vote and vote for Fidesz. Election observers even reported cases of election officials forcing such people to declare themselves analphabetic so that they would have to allow the election officials to fill out their forms.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 10:49:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]
there was a substantial increase of pensions before the elections.

To be precise: with inflation below target, there was a substantial (5%) increase in the real value of pensions over the last two years, and this was emphasized in Fidesz's campaign. But pensioner voters were shafted, too: there was no such increase in the current year and further rises are unlikely, especially is the inflation-suppressing "energy price battle" is forgotten after the election.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Mon Apr 14th, 2014 at 01:31:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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