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you have provided some explanations for their popularity

That's a strange way to put it. I have provided some explanations of their election victory, which is a function of their current relative popularity (among others). You however seem to be talking about absolute popularity and over a longer timeframe, for which I would have to detail their opinion-polling history and several more factors explaining past changes (even if I restrict myself to past gains). I didn't say in the diary, but in absolute numbers, while Fidesz lost a sixth of its voters compared to 2010, it was much lower in the polls one year ago.

But Fidesz was popular before austerity too, yes?

I don't get this question. Which austerity do you mean? Their own, or the previous governments'? Or is this an ill-worded reference to their 'freedom fight against the IMF'? Either way, in what way is prior popularity relevant? Do you want to go back to how Fidesz became the dominant right-of-centre party?

And the opposition has, I suppose, not always been fragmented?

By which values of "always"? The opposition has been fragmented ever since 2010, in fact for some parties splintered while Fidesz was in opposition.

we still lack the X-factor

LOL. I just read (belatedly) the sub-thread you kicked off in the Huntington diary, and I hear an echo in you again looking for simple answers. There is no X factor, reality is complicated. (The problem is not using models but using too simple models.)

Fidesz/Orban/Jobbik so massively popular

In Fidesz's case, I wouldn't call getting 27% of the total voting-age population "massively popular". Fidesz lost the 2002 and 2006 elections with more, hence the distinction between relative and absolute popularity. Orbán himself has a 40-45% popularity (but then only the representative President of the Republic is above 50%). And Jobbik's popularity isn't linked to Fidesz's (they were negligible in the polls prior to summer 2009).

Is two thirds of the population suffering from intense post-Trianon bitterness, or what?

What two-thirds of the population suffer from is more like poverty. To use post-Trianon bitterness, you'd have to point at a constant of the political landscape over the past 25 years, but you are only looking at the last two elections.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Apr 8th, 2014 at 08:02:45 AM EST
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