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The problem isn't the euro, it is the stranglehold of austerity.
Of course since the relevant articles of the treaties, much like the American "debt ceiling," codify an incoherent conventional wisdom rather than a rigorous economic analysis, there are all sorts of workarounds should workarounds be desired. But that would be a transparently bad-faith reading of the treaties.
Now, I don't have a problem with engaging in a little legal legerdemain to get around a mutual suicide clause - or even just flat up breaking the relevant clauses. But that is because I find a constitutional crisis much less scary than a constitutional crisis following ten years of austeritarian idiocy, not because I labour under any illusion that making policy based on a transparently bad-faith reading of the constitution will not result in a constitutional crisis.
And dismantling the euro would cause at least short term disruptions in the trade of the euroblock, which is most emphatically not what we need right now.
Heck, the need to hedge currency movements in cross border production flows means even more games for finance to play
- Jake Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
Unless we get substantial relief from the costs of Austerity in the short term, there will be no long term in which to accomplish long-term tasks. A couple of rounds of competitive devaluation would provide such short-term relief.
But would we get that? If the local elites are hell-bent on insanity, as some clearly are (look at the UK, although with the election approaching, it's true that Osborne reversed austerity, but he did not admit to it and plans to double up after the election).
I do see Thomas' point. And in a way the Euro could provide the leverage to achieving a change in a shorter term, without dismantling the EU. But it would, I believe, require the threat by France to leave. And I don't think the current government has it in himself (he would get crucified by the right-wing press, which is a problem when you start from an unpopularity record). Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi
A couple of rounds of competitive devaluation would provide such short-term relief. But would we get that?
A couple of rounds of competitive devaluation would provide such short-term relief.
Historical experience points to "yes."
Absent shared physical coin and note, it is basically impossible for the states under deflationary pressure to deflate sufficiently to avoid depreciation.
"Political will" does not really matter when it is the will to accomplish mathematical impossibilities.
That's the difference between the depression of the American trade bloc following the panics of 1929, and the depression of the Asian developing economies following the end of the Yen carry in 1998.
As long as the current architecture stays in place, German industrial exports will profit from an undervalued currency, while the rest of us struggle with what is for us an overvalued currency.
End the Euro, let the DM float, you will see what happens. And, for the rest of us, it will be the best thing we can do to kick-start exports. The Hun is always either at your throat or at your feet. Winston Churchill
the local elites are hell-bent on insanity
The local elites are not hell-bent on insanity. The local elites are playing in a global world where workers are worth as little as they can get away with paying them, capital can move instantly across borders without taxation, politicians and policy can be bought to order, and no one gives a crap about any of that fairness or progress stuff.
The 'crisis' has been excellent for the elites everywhere. They're all much, much richer and more powerful than they were ten years ago.
Can we please stop thinking this is an accident, or that they don't understand what they're doing?
It's not even 'austerity' - it's the Euro and Anglo equivalent of the rise of the oligarchs during the end of the Soviet Union.
While everyone here is busy debating whether Krugman has a point sometimes, we've all been robbed at gunpoint.
But it would, I believe, require the threat by France to leave.
Or Italy, or both, or with Spain and (why not?) Greece. At that point it's Neuro&Seuro or bust, no? 'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
Do you mean the cost of implementing and maintaining Schengen border controls? There is EU funding for that. *Lunatic*, n. One whose delusions are out of fashion.
Breaking austerity without breaking the Euro requires a supermajority of member governments to take a sufficiently strong stance against austerity. And that supermajority must include Germany.
And I cannot tell a plausible story about how to build an anti-austerity coalition big enough and powerful enough to bully Germany into unconditional surrender on the most important German foreign policy objective of the last forty years, without passing through a several months (or years) long stage where the anti-austerity coalition is:
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