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The Little Englander rhetoric is mostly for the Little Englanders.

Yes, but there are so very many of them.

If the Tories win an outright majority next year, which is improbable but by no means impossible, then Cameron will be forced to have a referendum. He cannot continue as leader of the Tories if he doesn't as most of the party want it; if he steps down, the next leader will have one.

Labour are stupid enough to have one just to "clear the air".

And if we have a referendum, the euro-skeptics will win.

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Sun Jul 20th, 2014 at 07:51:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Helen:

Cameron will be forced to have a referendum. He cannot continue as leader of the Tories if he doesn't as most of the party want it; if he steps down, the next leader will have one.

If a referendum really were to happen, (as opposed to just talking about one, a political football kicked back and forth fruitlessly for years now), the the full forces pro and con would hit the headlines daily. The business community would be up in arms against leaving the EU and the little englanders would be yelling their slogans as well.

Right now it's stuck, a referendum would really remove that block, no matter the outcome it would be real, whereas as it is now the threat/promise to have one is a pathetic Cry-wolf tactic, worn to a thread.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sun Jul 20th, 2014 at 12:12:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
that's a useful point. I've been surprised at the rapid maturing of the Scottish independence debate as the time for the poll approaches.

As you say, it's getting real and the Scots know they need to think hard. So, finally, they are and their media is providing them with the fuel.

But Scotland is a more mature country than England and they have a better more rounded media. Ours are dominated by the Heil and the Murdoch. So we're leaving for sure

keep to the Fen Causeway

by Helen (lareinagal at yahoo dot co dot uk) on Mon Jul 21st, 2014 at 09:15:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]
If I were Scottish and saw the likelihood of a successful referendum for the UK to exit the EU, I might vote for Scottish independence and then try to remain in the EU while England leaves.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jul 21st, 2014 at 02:45:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]
And if the Euro weren't in such a mess at the moment, Scotland could also have a popular alternative currency to Sterling.  The Scottish referendum has been well timed (from a Unionist point of view) to coincide with the aftermath of the Irish Economic collapse (thus removing the most obvious role model and exemplar from the debate), the Euro debacle, a slight English economic recovery, and increasing disenchantment with the EU all round.

Had the referendum been timed to coincide with Irish economic boom, Euro stability, English stagnation, and general EU economic growth the grounds of the debate would be very different.

Index of Frank's Diaries

by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Mon Jul 21st, 2014 at 05:57:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Keeping the Sterling is the weak point in the proposal for Scottish independence. With the Euro, they would at least have a seat at the Central Bank. But why not create a new currency (Scotsmark?) ?

Scotland is big enough for that.

by rz on Tue Jul 22nd, 2014 at 04:48:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The Scotsman, today.
A stand-alone Scottish currency would be the best way forward for the country after independence, a report by MPs has suggested.

[...]

However, a stand-alone Scottish currency would give a Scottish Government the greatest economic freedom to shape policy after a Yes vote, the MPs found.

"Despite the inherent risks involved, a new Scottish currency would give the Scottish Government the maximum economic leverage required to pursue a separate economic policy - the stated aim of separation," the report states.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Jul 22nd, 2014 at 04:54:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Scotsmark?

Unicorn.

by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Tue Jul 22nd, 2014 at 12:58:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
to design a new energy based currency...

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Tue Jul 22nd, 2014 at 02:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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