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That really does not matter - for the applications where liquid fuel or hydrocarbon feedstock are non-substitutable, oil could be $ 1,000 a barrel and it would still be cheap at twice the price.

Take an airline ticket, for instance. Fuel can't be much more than a third of the ticket price in a real airline, because if it were then Ryanair would be throwing away money like it was spoiled fish. The rest is amortization, cost of capital, airport fees, taxes, staff, general overhead, etc. (most of which Ryanair dodges with its, uh, interesting business practices). If the price of crude goes up by a factor of ten, that means the price of final distillates go up by no more than a factor of five, which means airline tickets would a bit under triple in price. That's still, by any reasonable standard, dirt cheap.

At $/bbl 1,000 crude, you could power Finland with solar panels year-round. Which would incidentally provide you with all the methanol you need for your liquid fuel consumption, because you'd load balance by overbuilding and using methanol synthesis as spinning reserve.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Sep 25th, 2014 at 03:43:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
oil could be $ 1,000 a barrel and it would still be cheap at twice the price
Would be still cheap... for very few.
the price of final distillates go up by no more than a factor of five
Did you assume that the cost of side services, maintenance would not grow with the oil price?
you could power Finland with solar panels year-round
Please estimate the solar energy budget for Finland in winter months. How many transcontinental flights can then Finnair make?
by das monde on Thu Sep 25th, 2014 at 04:04:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Did you assume that the cost of side services, maintenance would not grow with the oil price?

Of course I did. Even if you buy into the most hysterically Luddite claims about the cost of a renewable energy portfolio, it's no more than three or four times the headline cost of fossil fuels. And side services, maintenance, etc. will obviously not go up in lockstep with general energy prices. There are other things than energy going into those processes.

At the ballpark resolution we're looking at here, that doesn't even get you to a rounding error.

Please estimate the solar energy budget for Finland in winter months. How many transcontinental flights can then Finnair make?

Finland has on the order of 1 kWh/day/m2 of insolation in the deep winter, and on the order of five times that much in the summer, or around 300 GWh/km2/yr. Finland consumes on the order of 300 TWh/yr. So for full, year-round coverage, at something like 2:1 overbuild, you'd need to cover less than 1 % of the surface area of Finland in solar panels.

As for how many flights you could power on the load balancing surplus from that strategy, I'm gonna go with 'enough.'

Of course this is an insanely wasteful way of powering Finland. Nobody would actually do anything like this in the real world, because vastly superior options exist. But the point here is to demonstrate that energy, in and of itself, is not a serious constraint on economic activity. If energy looks like it is a serious constraint, under the present state of technological achievement, then you have lost the plot somewhere along your train of thought.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Thu Sep 25th, 2014 at 03:53:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]
According to this data, Helsinki insolation in deep winter is 0.16 kWh/day/m2. Taking into account clearness (given) and solar cell 30% efficiency, the potential is 134 GWh/km2/yr. With the energy consumption 373 TWh/year, you need to cover at least 2800 km2 with solar panels. That is already close to 1% (larger than Luxemburg), without overbuilding. The southern part of Finland will not welcome that. Likely you would take all open patches in the middle part. Surely, this is absurd, especially in winter. But other options are not spectacular for Finland, are they?
energy, in and of itself, is not a serious constraint on economic activity
Only if you can cover Luxemburg with solar panels fast and cheaply, without objections, with willing elite investors. If you cannot do that, energy limitations will have profound impact on the economy. The ratio of energy cost and labor cost will skyrocket towards the utilization convenience ratio. Humanity would be moving back to slavery economy. What we have now socially is an artificial taste of what is to come.
by das monde on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 03:43:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]
<quote>But other options are not spectacular for Finland, are they?</quote>

Finland has according to your link 31% renewables today (and another 18% nuclear). I don't think Finland is up against any hard barrier when it comes to expanding that, there is lot of windy coast for wind, space for solar and forests for biofuels. For load balancing over the year I think Finland already uses the close proximity to the Scandinavian mountain range and its Swedish and Norwegian hydro power.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 05:46:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
About 90% of Finish renewables come from forest/paper industry & their residuals, and hydro-power. Not much expandable. Wind & solar power trend to be negligible there.
by das monde on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 06:53:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
So? Build a handful of reactors. No big deal.

Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 01:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those are all logistical and political problems, not energy problems per se.

Allowing vested interests to masquerade political problems as energy problems is unhelpful.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 05:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Those who want inflation, renewables cannot force that. Those who can, are definitely not interested. It's a part of thermodynamics, I guess.
by das monde on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 07:19:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Please explain, in your own words, the scope and most important conclusions of the field of thermodynamics.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 03:07:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Thermodynamics allows going against grain - but you need to do work, expend energy, take time, manage information and logistics.

There is a huge amount of political, belief-changing work to be done. Not sure we can outwork the selfish opposition at the best of times. Now we are just day-dreaming instead of working anything towards a little more sustainable planet.

by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 02:39:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Plainly, you do not understand thermodynamics.

Please refrain from appealing to a body of knowledge you are obviously ignorant of in the future. It does not help your argument.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 05:53:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, steady state does not allow humor.
by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 06:03:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Humor is not an acceptable substitute for thought.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 07:46:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]
We can only think so much.
by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 10:59:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Disorder is the natural tendency with inanimate objects, say a library. The books might be in order by some filing scheme, but, absent effort they will become less ordered. That was the analogy Claude Shannon used when relating the concept of entropy to information theory. The librarian performs work against entropy when he puts the books back in order. I believe that was what das monde was referencing.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 10:36:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It is really super-easy to cause large inflation through renewables. This is how you do it.

  1. Print lots of money.
  2. Spend it on building renewables.
  3. If you don't get inflation yet, go to 1.


Peak oil is not an energy crisis. It is a liquid fuel crisis.
by Starvid on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 05:53:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It is really super-easy to cause large inflation through renewables.

Not if it involves Germans. Then you would be very lucky to get one very inadequate iteration.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 10:38:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]
To echo how we were talking about this seven or eight years ago on this site - the question isn't feasibility, it's can we continue to provide bread and circus vacations to Hawaii and Italy for the middle class before they turn to political unrest instead?

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 06:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Well, the middle class seems to be disappearing, but not turning to political unrest in outstanding numbers so far.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Fri Sep 26th, 2014 at 09:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OWS was pretty impressive. The current and former middle class felt it still had something left to lose, so it ended. I don't think that will last another 10 years.

I also think that the Arab Spring being the food riot that it was is a harbinger of the resource wars to come for humanity as a whole.

you are the media you consume.

by MillMan (millguy at gmail) on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 03:55:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
MillMan:
can we continue to provide bread and circus vacations to Hawaii and Italy for the middle class before they turn to political unrest instead?

Interesting choice of countries as examples! ;)

People are turning to political unrest, it's just for the moment mostly polite and inadequate in the first world, (and pretty easily squelched through mass digi-surveillance knowing protestor plans in advance).

In other parts of the world it is so far equally inadequate, if much less polite.

ISIS notwithstanding... Their protests (and Boku Haram's) are scary and have grabbed headlines, but the idea of a Caliphate is far from new, and will probably not fly long term unless one or two things happen. One, the levels of social collapse exceed Egypt's or Palectine's (or Yemen's, or Somalia's), or seconfly the first world violently over-reacts (again) and continues the kind of of dumb-brute, collateral damage-rich campaigns to reduce Muslim population willy-nilly through attrition and superior firepower.

Tony Blair's solution (to pretty much everything.)

Or, we could draw silly lines on a map and watch the consequences unfold as Islam goes through its tortuous schisms while we engage, enable and enrich corrupt elites in order to plunder their territories' fossil fuels.

Oh, wait...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 01:36:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
melo:
(and pretty easily squelched through mass digi-surveillance knowing protestor plans in advance)

I have been wondering about the fall of DDR. It looks like Stasi failed its core objective, but why and how? Was the discontent overwhelming? Were the analysts stuck in the wrong frame? Were the agents just phoning it in?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 04:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The people themselves were not permitted to know too much about the outside world, a cultivated ignorance, so to speak.
The secret police have a stronger cog-diss because they do know how many lies it takes to keep folks out of the know.

I am just finishing the unknown history of Mao, and back then it was calculated to take 500 armed 'security' thugs to suppress 30,000 peasants. Perhaps it was even less thugs in Stasi days.

The success of a totalitarian state in staying in power always rocks on the fulcrum of the ability of the secret police's willingness to go along with the program.
In a way it is the weakest link in the chain. Lose them and it's game over, so there is a vested interest in keeping them sweet. Favours and perks...

Eventually you have Pakistan/Egypt situations, where the military arm attains near-absolute power, swathes of prime land, etc.

When the costs of repression come too high, then change will come, willy nilly.

This is why America is so busy building up a criminally fascistic element in its domestic forces, to prepare for mass riots if the dollar crashes with such a high proportion of the populace armed.

They backed off with Bundy, but if he had been black and/or religious, it would have gone differently.

Bundy was really one of them, so...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 08:17:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I am just finishing the unknown history of Mao, and back then it was calculated to take 500 armed 'security' thugs to suppress 30,000 peasants.
That is not an unusual ratio of  management. Some factories in Shenzhen today are probably more effective. The secret of any leadership is to work on submissive, crowd following instincts.
by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 03:05:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah, Stasi and KGB failed completely, without any kicking apart from a weak August putsch in Moscow.

This all be less mysterious if the genuine top objective of these secret services (and Gorbachev government) would had been exactly what what happened.

by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 02:45:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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