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melo:
(and pretty easily squelched through mass digi-surveillance knowing protestor plans in advance)

I have been wondering about the fall of DDR. It looks like Stasi failed its core objective, but why and how? Was the discontent overwhelming? Were the analysts stuck in the wrong frame? Were the agents just phoning it in?

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by A swedish kind of death on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 04:16:40 PM EST
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The people themselves were not permitted to know too much about the outside world, a cultivated ignorance, so to speak.
The secret police have a stronger cog-diss because they do know how many lies it takes to keep folks out of the know.

I am just finishing the unknown history of Mao, and back then it was calculated to take 500 armed 'security' thugs to suppress 30,000 peasants. Perhaps it was even less thugs in Stasi days.

The success of a totalitarian state in staying in power always rocks on the fulcrum of the ability of the secret police's willingness to go along with the program.
In a way it is the weakest link in the chain. Lose them and it's game over, so there is a vested interest in keeping them sweet. Favours and perks...

Eventually you have Pakistan/Egypt situations, where the military arm attains near-absolute power, swathes of prime land, etc.

When the costs of repression come too high, then change will come, willy nilly.

This is why America is so busy building up a criminally fascistic element in its domestic forces, to prepare for mass riots if the dollar crashes with such a high proportion of the populace armed.

They backed off with Bundy, but if he had been black and/or religious, it would have gone differently.

Bundy was really one of them, so...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Sat Sep 27th, 2014 at 08:17:31 PM EST
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I am just finishing the unknown history of Mao, and back then it was calculated to take 500 armed 'security' thugs to suppress 30,000 peasants.
That is not an unusual ratio of  management. Some factories in Shenzhen today are probably more effective. The secret of any leadership is to work on submissive, crowd following instincts.
by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 03:05:04 AM EST
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Yeah, Stasi and KGB failed completely, without any kicking apart from a weak August putsch in Moscow.

This all be less mysterious if the genuine top objective of these secret services (and Gorbachev government) would had been exactly what what happened.

by das monde on Sun Sep 28th, 2014 at 02:45:01 AM EST
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