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Interestingly argued article, Luis. I think you are correct in your assumptions, but there are so many variables that it is difficult to be precise. One factor which you are a little light on is the emotional factor. A recent study showed that voters are more likely to be swayed by their emotions than the hard practical facts. As a Scot, I have heard a lot of debates on the 'I' subject and supporters of both sides have occasionally shown themselves to be somewhat emotionally unhinged in their condemnation of the other side or personality.
Nevertheless, the one overarching fact is that the only people not disenchanted in the UK with the current political status quo are the politicians themselves and I believe that whatever the result, Britain has reached a watershed and we will see a completely new political landscape in the next five years or so.
Perhaps this is a peculiarly British condition, but it is an early warning that the politicians of the EU in particular and the other member states should ignore at their peril.
by Iain0203 on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 03:52:41 PM EST
Welcome to ET, Iain.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 04:10:34 PM EST
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Most astute and comprehensive comment on the Scottish Question yet, welcome indeed, Iain!

Total agreement with The UK having a watershed moment coming up. With such leadership as Osbourne, Clegg, Miliband and Cameron the status quo reveals its insipid essence, with corresponding levels of revulsion from the electorate, ever more reluctant to use their vote as mere exercise in futility.

The yes vote could be a Guy Fawkes event, couldn't happen to a more deserving crew...

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 05:20:10 PM EST
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