Interestingly argued article, Luis. I think you are correct in your assumptions, but there are so many variables that it is difficult to be precise. One factor which you are a little light on is the emotional factor. A recent study showed that voters are more likely to be swayed by their emotions than the hard practical facts. As a Scot, I have heard a lot of debates on the 'I' subject and supporters of both sides have occasionally shown themselves to be somewhat emotionally unhinged in their condemnation of the other side or personality.
Nevertheless, the one overarching fact is that the only people not disenchanted in the UK with the current political status quo are the politicians themselves and I believe that whatever the result, Britain has reached a watershed and we will see a completely new political landscape in the next five years or so.
Perhaps this is a peculiarly British condition, but it is an early warning that the politicians of the EU in particular and the other member states should ignore at their peril.