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I don't really see why it's such a drama. Because it's an English-speaking nation, I suspect. There is no philosophical, diplomatic, economic or monetary show-stopper. Scotland will join the group of relatively rich, independent, innovative and dynamic nordic nations.

Norway and Denmark speak closely-related languages and used to be united under one crown. They are still friends, trading partners etc. And with respect to the EU, I imagine that Norway's status would be the closest analogue to what Scotland will negotiate with the EU in the short term.

I'm not convinced that Belgium will be an irreductible opponent of Scotland's maintained EU membership, because

  1. as far as I know, they still don't have a government
  2. the Flemish parties would certainly be in favour, leaving any government divided, at best, on the issue.

I think Spain's supposed opposition will turn out to be a non-issue faced with a fait accompli of Scottish independence. There is no constitutional controversy, unlike the Catalan case; a split will be (at least technically) amicable.

As for the currency question :

Moreover, Scotland would expose itself to retaliative actions from the UK, with ill intended policy makers in London punishing Scotland for its dare.

I disagree. The Westminster government tried to blackmail the Scottish electorate by threatening to withhold "their" pound (which has suddenly become English, and not British!), but this has backfired spectacularly. There will be tough negotiations, but Salmond's tabling the nuclear option of repudiating Scotland's share of British debt was, in my view, a masterful way of pointing out that this sort of brinksmanship is absurd. Scotland will keep the pound sterling until such time as it joins the Euro (or a nordic currency coalition?)

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 05:28:52 AM EST
FT.com: Carney warns Scots over currency union (September 9, 2014)
The governor of the Bank of England has warned that a currency union between England and an independent Scotland would be "incompatible with sovereignty".

...

He said that there had to be three successful components to a successful currency union.

These were the free movement of goods and services across the different parts of the currency, a banking union underpinned by common institutions such as a central bank, and elements of shared fiscal arrangements.

"You only have to look across the continent to look at what happens if you don't have those components in place," he said. "A currency union is incompatible with sovereignty."



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 10:47:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]
You may be counting too much on each side of the board being entirely rational.

luis_de_sousa@mastodon.social
by Luis de Sousa (luis[dot]de[dot]sousa[at]protonmail[dot]ch) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 02:10:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]
At this point England's views, and hence the process by which England arrives at them, are not of supreme importance to an independent Scotland.

Unless England is prepared to suppress Scottish independence with armed force - and can field an army willing to do that - Westminster is going to find itself, at best, third or fourth on the list of external stakeholders that Scotland needs to consult on its decisions.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 02:21:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Westminster is going to find itself, at best, third or fourth on the list of external stakeholders that Scotland needs to consult on its decisions.

number 1- 3 are? The EU and then?

by IM on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 02:32:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]
USA, Germany, France. Possibly Spain.

"The EU" has amply demonstrated that when push comes to shove it does not exist as a functioning geopolitical entity.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 02:46:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Spain is going to make an ass of itself on this. There is a nonnegligible chance that Spain would block Scottish EU accession while England doesn't oppose it.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 9th, 2014 at 04:13:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
It seems I missed this from 6 months ago, though: Spain will not oppose Scottish EU entry: foreign minister (El País, 3 February 2014)
Spanish Foreign Minister José Manuel García-Margallo has stated that should Scotland elect to break away from the United Kingdom, Spain will not oppose the move because it does not have any bearing on the internal affairs of the country. "If the Constitution of the United Kingdom permits - and it seems that it does - that Scotland call a referendum on their possible independence, we will say nothing on the matter," he said in an interview with the Financial Times.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 02:03:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That was my instinct too. It's different from an extraconstitutional secession.

It's all huff and puff and bluff from the No-men.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 05:55:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
This is becoming more and more of a problem for Spain because it is setting itself up for a true constitutional crisis. Basically
It is also peculiar that the `national transition process' was initiated and some institutions for an independent state were created without waiting for the results of such a referendum. Moreover, the purpose and questions of the referendum clash with the Spanish Constitution which explicitly states the `indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation' and received 91 per cent support in Catalonia in 1978. Claims of Catalonia being a sovereign entity have been unanimously rejected by the Spanish Constitutional Court. While the British Parliament validated the organisation of the Scotland independence referendums, the Spanish Parliament rejected the Catalan one by a very large majority.
(Euro Crisis in the Press LSE blog)

The Constitution says:

Article 2

The Constitution is based on the indissoluble unity of the Spanish nation, the common and indivisible country of all Spaniards; it recognises and guarantees the right to autonomy of the nationalities and regions of which it is composed, and the solidarity amongst them all.

Also
Article 92

1. Political decisions of special importance may be submitted to all citizens in a consultative referendum.

This is being interpreted restrictively to mean you cannot have a referendum in Catalonia only.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 06:15:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
the Spanish Constitution...explicitly states the `indissoluble unity of the Spanish Nation'

But the definition of a nation usually includes commonality of language and culture. Catalonia is no less distinct on those terms than is Portugal or the Basque areas and Catalonia only became a part of Spain as a historical contingency, with the union of the crowns of Castile and Aragon, and Catalonia was about as different from Aragon as it was from Castile.  

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 02:32:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Now you're being unconstitutional.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 02:36:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Not only history but also laws are written by the victor. The trick is to get people to keep observing them.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 11:38:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Migeru:
This is being interpreted restrictively to mean you cannot have a referendum in Catalonia only.

So is there any push for the Spanish parliament to call a national referendum on wheter Catalonia and the rest of Spain should go different ways?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se

by A swedish kind of death on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 03:45:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course not, 80% of the Spanish Parliament is against Catalan independence.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 06:36:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Of course, just highlighting a difference with respect to Scotland. The UK parliament also claims the power to decide referendums and are also opposed to a split. But in the end, they accepted a referendum (or rather it supported a government that gave the Scottish parliament temporary powers to arrange one), thus retaining both the claim on the powers and the impression that they care about what the Scots wants.

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 03:54:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The Spain Report: Spain Preparing To Suspend Regional Government In Catalonia As Mas Insists Indy Vote Will Be Held (September 16th, 2014)
"There are lines that cannot be crossed", said Mr. García Margallo during a breakfast meeting with journalists: "The government will use all of the means at its disposal to prevent a secessionist referendum. The law, and only the law".

Asked if those measures included suspending regional government, the Foreign Minister replied: "It includes everything that needs to be included to prevent it".

"Within the framework of the Constitution and the rule of law, everything is possible; but outside of the framework of the Constitution and the rule of law, nothing is possible."



A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 06:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]
outside of the framework of the Constitution and the rule of law, nothing is possible.

He sincerely hopes! However, the success of Franco would seem to disprove his thesis.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Sep 16th, 2014 at 11:40:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In Spain we like to think we're living after 1978, though it may look increasingly to the casual observer that Europe is stuck in a mock version of the 1930s.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 04:20:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Wait a minute : is it constitutional to suspend a regional government?

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 03:39:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Article 155
1. If an Autonomous Community does not fulfil the obligations imposed upon it by the Constitution or other laws, or acts in a way seriously prejudicing the general interests of Spain, the Government, after lodging a complaint with the President of the Autonomous Community and failing to receive satisfaction therefore, may, following approval granted by an absolute majority of the Senate, take the mea-sures necessary in order to compel the latter forcibly to meet said obligations, or in order to protect the above-mentioned general interests.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 03:58:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The "suspension" of autonomy is actually a bypassing of the devolved government's authority:
155.2. With a view to implementing the measures provided in the foregoing clause, the Government may issue instructions to all the authorities of the Autonomous Communities.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 04:22:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]
How would those clauses on bypassing autonomy comport with laws and treaties forming the basis of the EU?

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 10:00:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Spanish regions' autonomy statutes are acts of the Spanish Parliament and thus subordinate to the Constitution. There would be no constitutional violation and the EU would probably have to say it's an internal matter.

The European Parliament might make nonbinding political declarations, of course.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 10:24:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And would the authorities of the Autonomous Communities follow such orders?

Sweden's finest (and perhaps only) collaborative, leftist e-newspaper Synapze.se
by A swedish kind of death on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 02:23:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I suppose if they don't they might be violating the law, too.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Wed Sep 17th, 2014 at 03:43:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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