Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I think my scenario actually includes some of what you are missing, some explicit, some implicit. The bounds between elites are severed by elites-disposing elections. For the EU, I think France's departure (in contrast to the departure of other southern European states until 2017) would be a major shift, giving Britain (and its occasional Scandinavian  ex-EFTA allies) much greater weight. France's exit would also mean the end of Strasbourg as EU sear, in addition, the split of Belgium I hinted at would incapacitate Brussels, all of which would IMHO necessitate a new start.

Regarding the USA and NATO, I think both are too focused on external enemies and loyalty to the hegemon, and Cyprus and lesser Turkish–Greek conflicts of the past show that they would have difficulty stopping a serious conflict between allies. This would be even more true for allies even less enthusiastic than de Gaulle: do you think Le Pen or Jobbik leader Vona would listen to appeals from the USA? What remains is siding with the victim militarily, on which point my scenario includes the establishment of a precedent for not applying Article 5. The USA would also have to hold back vs. France because of its nuclear deterrent and UNSC permanent membership.

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.

by DoDo on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 12:32:29 PM EST
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