Welcome to European Tribune. It's gone a bit quiet around here these days, but it's still going.
I think you're supposing a bang, where a wimper would more than suffice.  (And, be far more likely.)

As for the most "likely" of what you've presented, that's easy.  Hungary is run by nuts.  This is something you've confirmed for us. (With diaries, not by example.)

That said, I think that the manner of assault is to simple.  Orban is an apt pupil of Putin.  Why issue ultimatums when you can opt for hybrid war?  There's an established beef on the issue of dual citizenship for Slovaks of Hungarian descent.  Hungary extended it, Slovakia banned it. The fifth column is already in Bratislava, or at least in the south of Slovakia.

So ... in the wake of a provocation against Hungarians in Slovakia, Hungary sends weapons for them to defend themselves.  And as things escalate, strange men with foreign kit start popping up alongside the "rebels."

Wash, and repeat, how many times in Eastern Europe?

As for more proximate issues, if the war in Ukraine continues to escalate, and NATO offers weapons, how many of these weapons find their way onto the street in Eastern Europe? Cheap weapons tend to be an accelerant where underlying tribal tensions provide the spark for a conflict

And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg

by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Tue Feb 10th, 2015 at 11:58:16 AM EST

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