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I have to say I subscribe to your perspective here completely. So, if they are being naive (i.e. in practice that would mean even more naive than Lapavitsas) then they are taking Greece into a very bad place: either humiliation or catastrophe (in this case by not preparing for the forced exit).
OTOH if they are preparing for this, then they might be taking the only viable step to save Greece...
At one end you have "outside their frame of reference."
At the other end, you have "detailed implementation plan on file, with multiple contingency options at each critical stage gate, cadres already mobilized, key institutions suborned, and key stakeholders mapped and scheduled for subvertion or subjugation."
It is clear from Syriza's public record that they do not consider a Grexit unthinkable, so that's already a major improvement over the previous government. It is also clear from their negotiating stance that they do not have a plan that they can go out an execute tomorrow.
But beyond that, as Upstate NY notes, it is not possible to divine from the public record where on the continuum from idle speculation to detailed time table they are.
Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.
One can only speculate (things like this would have to be kept secret until after the fact), but one can hope that at least they are at least considering being forced out (or even considering getting out by themselves).
If they only thing that they are doing is paying lip service to potential Grexit and are not preparing a plan C or D based on it, then they might be in a very complicated spot soon.
If they are bluffing and the bluff is called, it will be humiliating (the kind of humiliation that can bring lots of demons to the surface).
Even if under more optimal circumstances they could do it, circumstances are not optimal. After any change of government a new government needs a few months to get a grip on the administrative apparatus. Syriza faces special problems in this regards.
But, as you said:
"They have beenin government for about 6 weeks and spent the first month in negotiations. They would have to put in place some structures using the levers of government in order to ready any plan other than "pull the pug come hell or high water"."
So Syriza simply needs time for any grand schemes. If they have grand schemes.
And that, the primacy of the Intergovernmental over the Community method, is one of the toxic legacies of Merkel's handling of the crisis.
A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
Critical to game theory is managing your opponents expectations of your intentions - and keeping them in the dark as to your real intentions as much as possible. At one level Varoufakis et al are playing the game of negotiating the best deal they an for Greece within the EZ. It would be surprising if they didn't have at least a contingency plan for what to do if that first route failed to produce a feasible result. But equally that Plan B must not be so public and obvious as to undermined whatever slender chance they have of succeeding with plan A.
There is also the not insignificant matter that the majority of the electorate are not yet resigned to Grexit. Syriza will take the full blame for all negative consequences if they are seen to have actively sought that outcome. Less so if it is seen to have been forced on them.
Index of Frank's Diaries
If the plan is to create a scenario where Greece is forced to exit against it's will - and thereby maintain it's Grexit negotiating position - then Greece cannot simultaneously be seen to be planning for Grexit voluntarily.
Greece does need to keep any mobilization it is doing under the radar. But the reason is that until a fairly advanced state of readiness their enemies can make them lose faster than they can mobilize the rest of the way.
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