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If the plan is to create a scenario where Greece is forced to exit against it's will - and thereby maintain it's Grexit negotiating position - then Greece cannot simultaneously be seen to be planning for Grexit voluntarily. In other words, part of the plan may be to be seen not to have a plan for Grexit.  There is only so much "cadres already mobilized, key institutions suborned" you can do without everyone knowing about it.

Critical to game theory is managing your opponents expectations of your intentions - and keeping them in the dark as to your real intentions as much as possible. At one level Varoufakis et al are playing the game of negotiating the best deal they an for Greece within the EZ.  It would be surprising if they didn't have at least a contingency plan for what to do if that first route failed to produce a feasible result.  But equally that Plan B must not be so public and obvious as to undermined whatever slender chance they have of succeeding with plan A.

There is also the not insignificant matter that the majority of the electorate are not yet resigned to Grexit.  Syriza will take the full blame for all negative consequences if they are seen to have actively sought that outcome.  Less so if it is seen to have been forced on them.

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by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Fri Mar 13th, 2015 at 07:03:16 AM EST
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If the plan is to create a scenario where Greece is forced to exit against it's will - and thereby maintain it's Grexit negotiating position - then Greece cannot simultaneously be seen to be planning for Grexit voluntarily.

On the contrary. There is nothing wrong with saying "we desire a negotiated agreement, but we are building our portfolio of alternatives in case negotiated agreement turns out to be infeasible."

Greece does need to keep any mobilization it is doing under the radar. But the reason is that until a fairly advanced state of readiness their enemies can make them lose faster than they can mobilize the rest of the way.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Fri Mar 13th, 2015 at 03:09:15 PM EST
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