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As I have noted a number of times in a number of places, the euro is a quasi-sovereign currency not issued by an actual sovereign, whereas the US$ is a sovereign currency issued by an actual sovereign (Technically each of the states is a sovereign, and once upon a time several of them issued their own currencies.  This went less than well.).  The US is therefore in a better position to manage those issues that arise from monetary sources.  That said, 1) fiscal transfers are losing steam first because of the economy and second because the poorer states are proving to be buckets that can't be filled; 2) the only full employment mandate the Fed recognizes is for investment bankers; 3) dirty, little secret: the US doesn't have free movement of people in practice, either; and 4) any unemployment figures from the US are a joke because they don't include people whose unemployment insurance payments have ended but who have given up looking, and they don't include people who are "self employed" because they can't find work.
by rifek on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 01:27:06 AM EST
Re point 4: This is definitely a valid criticism to putting the two charts side by side. But are there significant variants between US states in how meaningless the unemployment figures are?
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 01:44:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]
It's actually not a valid criticism.  Those workers are counted in the U4, U5 and U6 metrics.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 07:51:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
OK. But it's still meaningless to put the charts side by side without saying which metrics you are using.
by gk (gk (gk quattro due due sette @gmail.com)) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 07:57:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Agreed, but that's true of all stats.  Always a good idea to take a look at the notes to be sure of what you're reading.  Also why, in this case, it's a good idea to look at harmonized unemployment metrics across countries.  The BLS produces them (I think) either annually or quarterly.  The IMF produces them as well.

Most stats agencies are collecting the same stuff though.  It's just a question of whether they have the resources to collect the data (and the independence to do it properly).  Comparing stats from North America and Western Europe is usually a pretty easy task.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 05:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding:

And if the criticism is that the headline unemployment (U3) doesn't count those workers, I'd note the criticsm is as valid with regard to Eurostat as it is the BLS.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 07:52:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There may be some overlap between marginally attached and those that have been excluded from the labor force.  The problem is that the marginally attached definition requires that you have actively applied in the last year.  There are a lot of people who would be in the labor force, but haven't applied in the last year.  The way the Census trains for CPS, this very explicit.  They don't follow up to ask if you would have applied, but haven't because you haven't found an appropriate job.

The broader point is that there has emerged a secular divergence between Euro area labor force participation and that of the US.

What's going on? Europe and the United States face some of the same demographic and economic forces. Populations are aging on both sides of the Atlantic. Many workers in Europe, too, have stopped looking for work, discouraged by lack of opportunities.

There is, however, one big difference. In the euro area, the working rate of older women is still much lower than it is in the United States. Almost half of American women over 45 are in the labor market, compared to fewer than 40 percent in the euro zone. And European women are picking up the slack. So despite a severe economic downturn, the share of older women in the labor pool has been growing at a robust clip.



And I'll give my consent to any government that does not deny a man a living wage-Billy Bragg
by ManfromMiddletown (manfrommiddletown at lycos dot com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 11:57:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Europe panicked in 2009 over large deficits (due to automatic stabilizers) and pulled on the brake in 2010 (with the sovereign debt crisis). Then in 2011 you get the divergence from the US recovery, and Trichet raised rates for good measure causing a double-dip recession. Yay for Europe!

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 03:53:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Times have been tough these past five years in Europe, and many households who had been able to get by with a single income now need two. I'm guessing that the quality of the jobs (number of hours, hourly rate) added by increased female participation has been pretty low, with lots of mini-jobs.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II
by eurogreen on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 06:43:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Another factor likely at play in Europe is that there were a lot of well educated German women available when the need for more labor emerged. These are the low hanging fruit of any increase in women's employment, especially considering the productivity gained.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 09:46:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The problem is that the marginally attached definition requires that you have actively applied in the last year.  There are a lot of people who would be in the labor force, but haven't applied in the last year.

Now this is at least to some degree a valid criticism.  A few points though:

The default outcome is two years, really, because in order to receive the two consecutive years of unemployment comp (thanks Bill!), you have to actively look for work.  The number of people who would refuse that is, I think we'd all agree, exceedingly small.

Once that runs out, you're going to run into very few people who have not applied for a job -- great ones, middling ones, lots of shit ones -- within a year-long period, because, simply put, they're going to be on the streets otherwise.  Nearly all in that scenario will wind up taking shitty part-time jobs and getting counted under the alternative measures.  Some older ones -- and this is true especially given the Boomer retirement we're going through -- will fold and take shittier retirements.  But most will be caught by the measure.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 05:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
...adding:  On the participation rate charts.

Eurogreen apparently had a similar thought to me.  The crisis in Europe hit the periphery, where you're going to find less development and (I suspect) more traditional, one-income households generally.  The hit to wages from the recession was also much more dramatic on the periphery than it was in the US or the EZ core.

The demographics are pretty similar.  Ignoring the crisis, you should actually see participation rising faster in the US, because stronger job growth here should induce more labor participation.  But incorporating the crisis into the analysis probably gives you a good chunk of the answer.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 06:14:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Explain 3?
by Colman (colman at eurotrib.com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 04:10:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]
And (4), while we're on the subject.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 07:43:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]
U1 vs. U6?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 09:10:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]
But we make the same type of calculation in Europe. It is perfectly fine to try to estimate 'people looking for work'. A high labor participation rate does not have to be a sign of a healthy economy.

Of course we should always look at several indicators. e.g. both U1 and U6 and so on.

by rz on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 09:12:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The US graph provided appears to be U3, and even if you get to U6, the number of marginally attached workers in the US are grossly underreported, and even U6 does not account in any reasonable fashion for the legions of "self employed" workers who self-classify as such and so are treated as employed but in reality are marginally attached workers.
by rifek on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 10:29:49 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yes, presumably the chart is U3.  That's the metric most countries use for headline unemployment.

Again, on what grounds do you argue they're "grossly underreported"?

Also, you'll have to explain your rationale behind the self-employment stuff you're on about.

Not saying you're wrong on either count, necessarily, but 99 times out of 100, when people bitch about BLS's employment and inflation stats, they're spouting nonsense they read at ShadowStats or Zero Hedge or from some woo-peddling dipshit in the comments at Daily Kos.  Or they simply don't understand concepts like seasonal adjustment and chain-weighting and there being more than one measure for unemployment.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 05:22:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]
In the UK we call them "zero hours contracts." Or maybe "IR35" if the freelancer isn't freelance enough.

Basically they're on-demand labour with zero security and benefits.

Some percentage will count as genuine independent contract work work for a number of employers. But a larger percentage will be semi-employed temps hired on a per-project or as-needed basis.

Thus not quite in the same realm as Graeber's bullshit jobs, but certainly not employed in the sense of  traditional economic definitions.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2015 at 05:09:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]
There's some of that here, primarily in service provision for things like cable installation, electronics repair with retailers, and material delivery in construction (varies quite a bit by locality).  And professional wrestling strangely (I remember that being a big issue back when the WWF executive ran for Senate in Connecticut a few years back).  Financial planning jobs can be that way too.

Those jobs are generally shit, although the pay is a bit better than working part-time at the grocery store or something.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 22nd, 2015 at 05:57:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Insufficiently analytical for your standards, I'm afraid, but what I see in my law practice, and what I hear from other attorneys around the country, who used to get paychecks, don't get paychecks anymore, list themselves as self-employed because putting "unemployed" in your sales pitch just doesn't cut it, but are in reality just scraping by on sporadic income.

My best source on this is Chapter 13 bankruptcy cases.  Lots of self-employed people need them but can't qualify because their businesses don't generate enough income.  If they do happen to have enough income at the moment to get a plan approved, they can't keep it going for the 3-5 years required.  None of this information is being collected even anecdotally, let alone systematically.  The Chapter 13 success rate is a joke, and DOJ is doing no real research on the reasons; everything is just the "anecdotal" stories of those of us in the trenches.

This seems to be the pattern for data collection on the self-employed.  There is nothing close to the systematic data collection in place concerning wage earners and benefits recipients.  Even when data are collected, they seem to go nowhere.  A self-employed person applying for benefits has to jump through far more hoops far more frequently (so much so that a significant number either give up or are dropped, which creates its own data accuracy problem), yet the data collected seem to go nowhere other than some warehouse such as at the end of Raiders of the Lost Ark.

Consequently, I am compelled to conclude the status of the self-employed is not adequately accounted for in the statistics.  I'm also inclined to think this is not exactly accidental; if you don't bother collecting data on a problem, you can pretend it doesn't exist.

by rifek on Wed Apr 22nd, 2015 at 05:59:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry, busy week, so just getting to this.

...[W]hat I see in my law practice, and what I hear from other attorneys around the country, who used to get paychecks, don't get paychecks anymore, list themselves as self-employed because putting "unemployed" in your sales pitch just doesn't cut it, but are in reality just scraping by on sporadic income.

I don't think attorneys are a great gauge of the experience of the typical worker anywhere, let alone a basis for compiling national statistics and producing reports on the experience of the typical worker (which is the aim of the headline numbers).  

Most workers aren't going to have heard the sociological and business studies on how it's better to be employed in some capacity -- part-time, self-employed, whatever -- than to be unemployed.  Even fewer would be able to put together a good explanation for such "self-employment" in a job interview.  Most are going to lose their jobs, sign up for unemployment comp and look for new jobs.

The ability to list oneself that way in any credible way in an interview is nothing if not a "first-world problem," as the kids on Twitter like to say.

It's generally foolish -- and really quite arrogant (in a way that, I think I can say with some credibility, is ludicrously common with lawyers) -- to assume that one of the 10,000 or so people in these stats agencies hasn't thought of the brilliant insight some lawyer has thought about.  People talk about this stuff all the time.  I know.  I've done it.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 27th, 2015 at 07:13:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]
OK, but it's not just about lawyers. As you note, the bulk of the workforce, and of unemployed people, is composed of salaried workers. But there is an enormous number of people in a very large number of "tertiary" or "service" lines of work who can credibly be either salaried or self-employed. And it is distressingly common to run into, for example, IT contractors in France who disguise large time-gaps in their CV through declared self-(un)employment.

Sure, the statistics functionaries will have thought of this. Doesn't mean they measure it, because it's hard to measure accurately.

It is rightly acknowledged that people of faith have no monopoly of virtue - Queen Elizabeth II

by eurogreen on Tue Apr 28th, 2015 at 08:24:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I guess Drew's key point is
The ability to list oneself that way in any credible way in an interview is nothing if not a "first-world problem," as the kids on Twitter like to say.


A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Apr 28th, 2015 at 09:03:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]
I would note in my defense, since I'm tired of wasting my time responding to Drew, that I and most of the attorneys I'm in contact with around the country, do bankruptcies and small business reorganizations, and if you put us all together, we do thousands.  Actually a fairly reasonable sample size for misery.  We see a lot of faux self-employment and rampant underemployment.  As for what data agencies do and do not collect, having done my time in government service, I can say this: Agencies see, at most, what they have a legislative mandate to see.  If someone can show me how the growing collection of economic fringe dwellers is being accurately included in the stats, I'd be more than happy to look at it.  But I really don't think it is.
by rifek on Wed Apr 29th, 2015 at 09:58:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Sorry to tire you and waste your time, but:

I and most of the attorneys I'm in contact with around the country, do bankruptcies and small business reorganizations, and if you put us all together, we do thousands.  Actually a fairly reasonable sample size for misery.

That's not how sampling works.  And:

If someone can show me how the growing collection of economic fringe dwellers is being accurately included in the stats, I'd be more than happy to look at it.

You haven't established the premise here of a "growing fringe" to be "accurately included in the stats".

This is a bit more granular than what I asked Chris for a while back on QE and oil, but much the same principle.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.

by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Wed Apr 29th, 2015 at 05:50:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]
I have no idea what it is in the US, but it is certainly a strong phenomenon in the UK where

-People are pushed towards what I called self-unemployment from all sides, be it companies that more readily hire contractors, the fact that you don't even need to set up a company to do that (you would then simply report earnings as a sole trader -yes that then gives you unlimited liability but the client/employer won't mind), that slight tweaks to the benefit system have meant that it tends to be fiscally better for the first 12 months at least (and there was a sudden jump of about a million alleged self-employed in the quarter that such a measure was introduced) for whoever expects to log even a paltry number of hours

-Jobseeker allowance is so very near to zero

-They make sure you have to jump through hoops to get that very near to zero, to the point where it may not make economic sense. Some people have to spend tens of hours at the job centre that they could use for doing productive stuff such as fixing their house, looking after their kids...

And yes, it does not look great to put unemployed on your resume and, since it costs nothing to claim you were acting as a sole trader, many people did it. A one million boost in the data (while the hours worked did not hugely increase) is not negligible.

Earth provides enough to satisfy every man's need, but not every man's greed. Gandhi

by Cyrille (cyrillev domain yahoo.fr) on Fri May 1st, 2015 at 05:12:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]
The current stats themselves point to a growing fringe, and the problematic status of data collection for that fringe seems reasonably clear. Whether or not the growing fringe is growing faster than already indicated in current statistics is evidently not a question that can be answered using current statistics.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Sun May 10th, 2015 at 04:18:35 AM EST
[ Parent ]
Yeah I also do not get 3.
by rz on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 09:13:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]
State residency requirements? You may not access certain services until you've been registerad as a resident of the state for some time.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Migeru (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 10:11:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]
That, plus a significant portion of U6 unemployed in the South and Midwest are too poor to afford to move to look for better paying jobs and don't believe they would get such jobs if they did move. And many probably would be right.

"It is not necessary to have hope in order to persevere."
by ARGeezer (ARGeezer a in a circle eurotrib daught com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 01:13:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Outside of in-state tuition rates for college, I'm having trouble thinking of what residency would impact.

Be nice to America. Or we'll bring democracy to your country.
by Drew J Jones (pedobear@pennstatefootball.com) on Mon Apr 20th, 2015 at 05:10:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
While you don't need "papers" to move state to state, the disparities in benefits programs and costs of living often preclude relocation.  People in rural areas routinely can not get enough cash together to move where the jobs are.
by rifek on Tue Apr 21st, 2015 at 10:18:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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