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Bjinse wishes to have substantive argument, even though the "experts" he prefers begin by calling renewables VRE, or variable renewable penetration, as if that wasn't a given since the dawn of time. The word penetration when referring to renewables has also been used by grid operators since the earliest days, when they had major reports saying 6% to 8% was the maximum a stable grid could handle.


In short, the capacity factor threshold may actually be generous: if the instantaneous penetration of wind and solar can't exceed half or two-thirds of power system demand in any given moment, system security concerns will begin to bind before the penetration of variable renewables reaches their capacity factor.

It now seems the previous threshold of 8% (i.e., only 12 years ago in Germany) has been exceeded greatly, since even the lower threshold of 50% appears on the surface to be a far greater number.

Would the instances of 100% "penetration" of wind alone in Spain or Denmark provide enough of an example to give lie to the "experts" argument?

Could it also be that these "experts" aren't yet aware that the power electronics of modern wind turbines are currently being used to provide grid stability, and low voltage ride-through?

Or that modern prediction of wind and solar out to 48 hours ahead is enough for planning by grid operators in industrial networks?


Alternatively, if wind and solar are to remain subsidized, the amount of public subsidy per unit of energy supplied will have to keep growing in order to push VRE shares higher and higher. The total subsidy cost could rise sharply, as the price per MWh required increases alongside the quantity of electricity generated from these sources.

Shouldn't the experts be aware that subsidies in most advanced grids decrease over time, mimicking the fact that electricity prices would be higher without "variable renewable energy?"

Fact is, these experts are wrong. Two scenarios: 1. They're wrong and they know it, but they're just doing their job: propaganda; or 2, they're wrong and they don't know it, meaning they believe their propaganda... despite all manner of real world data.

I sure wish I would grow up.

"Life shrinks or expands in proportion to one's courage." - Ana´s Nin

by Crazy Horse on Tue Jun 9th, 2015 at 03:43:23 AM EST
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