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(Wanna assume total K millenia? Take the K-th root 1.023, or roughly divide 2.3% by K.)

That's still exponential growth ... since from at the very latest the second diaspora from Africa (as its conceivable that the first diaspora along the southern Asian coasts to Australia was more or less linear growth).

Its not logistic growth if keeps on growing at a growing rate. Since, evidently, logistic growth at a ceiling population that falls short of the population to fill up Africa, Eurasia and the Americas at a hunter gatherer density would have left big chunks of one or more continents empty of humans ... as we see big chunks of multiple continents empty of pretty much any other single species of primate.

Its not logistic growth with a ceiling at hunter gatherer densities worldwide if the growth continues to lead to population densities that require the additional work of settled agriculture.

Discussing how many doublings its been since what some evidence, including genetic evidence, suggests was passage through a demographic bottleneck in southern Africa is not disputing whether or not its exponential growth ... its only about estimating the exponential rate.

As far as demographic transition ... I deliberately phrased it as a potential, rather than a certainty. Its hard to sit writing in Beijing, now at twice the population of my home state of Ohio and still growing, and take it as a certainty.


I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.

by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Jul 2nd, 2015 at 06:47:06 AM EST
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BruceMcF:
Its hard to sit writing in Beijing, now at twice the population of my home state of Ohio and still growing, and take it as a certainty.

According to Rosling, China is at its peak. What is more, it has a 200 million decline in the pipeline as larger generations die and smaller are born.

Beijing will probably keep growing though, I think capital size is mostly a reflection of concentration of power.

by fjallstrom on Thu Jul 2nd, 2015 at 03:16:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]
Its at a peak, which is going to cause a "restucturing" in many sectors, including the University sector (just read a China Daily article about Tsinghua and Peking University trying to steal each other's top applicants) ...
... but my comment was not regarding current trends and projections, but regarding how certain we can be about how closely the outcome will follow the projection. There are quite a large number of one child families with the child born when the mother is relatively young, and so over the coming decade a Baby Boom of fairly impressive absolute magnitude is feasible, even if social norms lean against it at present.

I've been accused of being a Marxist, yet while Harpo's my favourite, it's Groucho I'm always quoting. Odd, that.
by BruceMcF (agila61 at netscape dot net) on Thu Jul 2nd, 2015 at 10:08:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]
The exceptional feature of humans is that they are apt to expand their resource base gradually or frequently. The industrial revolution is just the most momentous example. That allows humans to keep their "exponential" growth rate almost continuously. However, I would be interested to correlate the growth rate fluctuations  with resource "revolutions" and overshots, rises and falls of civilization centers. How direct are estimates of, say, the population estimates of the imperial Rome? Could we detect any demographic transitions then?  
by das monde on Thu Jul 2nd, 2015 at 09:59:52 PM EST
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