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I have to agree with Jake here.  Much as I believe this whole situation has been spectacularly mismanaged by the Troika and Eurogroup, I don't believe the markets will be all that surprised.  There will be increased volatility as the situation unfolds, certainly, and, as my own diary makes clear, I don't see there being a quick solution for the Eurozone.  However the surprising thing may well be how little a Greek default effects everything else.  Greece is only  a tiny % of the Eurozone economy and it was tanking anyway. The rest of the Eurozone is growing and in a cyclical upturn. Euro devaluation and QE will keep things ticking over.  So unless you are talking about factors and issues specific to Portugal of which I am unaware, I wouldn't be pressing the panic button just yet.  If anything the Eurogroup will be desperate to ensure it doesn't repeat the mistakes it made with Greece - and that could even increase Portugal's bargaining power - if it has a Government smart enough to realize that.

Index of Frank's Diaries
by Frank Schnittger (mail Frankschnittger at hot male dotty communists) on Sun Jun 28th, 2015 at 06:12:57 PM EST
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