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I know I'm probably out on the crazy end with my predictions at the moment. I just feel the the Eurogroup has developed a pathological desire to defeat Syriza - and they don't care about "pact sunt servanda" except when it suits them.
by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 06:20:50 PM EST
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Greece currently has a Target2 balance of around -100 billion Euros. That money would be gone. Peanuts?

Schengen is toast!

by epochepoque on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 06:53:23 PM EST
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That is the money that already is gone.

Expelling Greece would force the creditors to realize that it is lost in their accounting books as well as in reality. But not expelling Greece would not magically make it not-lost.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 11:32:16 PM EST
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It's "the bezzle".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman
by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 12:14:54 AM EST
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About twice what it would have cost to fix the crisis in early 2010. But no, because Weimar!

And about 1/3 to 1/4 what will be lost if Greece actually defaults.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 12:16:56 AM EST
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I think it's more that elements in the Troika have always had a pathological desire to defeat Europe.

Remember a few years ago when Europe was beginning to act in an anti-corporate way?

Europe as a common market and finance zone is fine. Europe aa a strong and independent political entity - especially one with left-populist anti-corporate leanings - must be prevented at all costs.

If the Troika had any serious interest in maintaining the European ideal of a semi-federalised superstate the Greek crisis would never have happened.

Perhaps I'm overestimating the ability to strategise, But it seems to me that the bad faith has been rather calculated and deliberate, and some possible explanations go beyond simple bullying.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 09:37:23 PM EST
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ThatBritGuy:

Remember a few years ago when Europe was beginning to act in an anti-corporate way?

Europe as a common market and finance zone is fine. Europe aa a strong and independent political entity - especially one with left-populist anti-corporate leanings - must be prevented at all costs.

If the Troika had any serious interest in maintaining the European ideal of a semi-federalised superstate the Greek crisis would never have happened.



'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty
by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 10:18:05 PM EST
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You overestimate their planning horizon and the coherence of their position.

When they need three iterations of press releases just to align on what they want to pretend happened at a past meeting, how much planning can there realistically be for the future?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 11:33:56 PM EST
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You don't need to plan coherently to have this:

ThatBritGuy:

Europe as a common market and finance zone is fine. Europe aa a strong and independent political entity - especially one with left-populist anti-corporate leanings - must be prevented at all costs.

anchored into the very fibre of your political viewpoint.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 04:00:11 AM EST
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