Grexit and Propaganda | 51 comments (51 topical, editorial, 0 hidden)

Just to clarity (4.00 / 2)

"Grexit" must mean ejection (or departure) of the Bank of Greece from the Eurosystem's payment clearing system Target2, and nothing else.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 03:04:09 PM EST

Re: Just to clarity (none / 0)

Maybe I'm pessimistic - but I don't see how any "NO" result does not end in ejection of BoG from the Target2 system.

(Of course, we'll see over the coming week whether the referendum result will be NO or YES.)

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 06:05:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 6)

Because that would be an illegal act, not conforming to the Treaties.

Of course, they may declare the Bank of Greece insolvent...

In any case, cutting of a country from the international payments system is about as hostile as a physical blockade or a siege. It's the kind of thing the US attempts to do on Iran, who could have predicted that the Eurozone would do it on an EU member state?

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 06:09:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 3)

I know I'm probably out on the crazy end with my predictions at the moment. I just feel the the Eurogroup has developed a pathological desire to defeat Syriza - and they don't care about "pact sunt servanda" except when it suits them.

by Metatone (metatone [a|t] gmail (dot) com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 06:20:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 2)

Greece currently has a Target2 balance of around -100 billion Euros. That money would be gone. Peanuts?

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 06:53:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 2)

That is the money that already is gone.

Expelling Greece would force the creditors to realize that it is lost in their accounting books as well as in reality. But not expelling Greece would not magically make it not-lost.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 11:32:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (none / 1)

It's "the bezzle".

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 12:14:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 5)

About twice what it would have cost to fix the crisis in early 2010. But no, because Weimar!

And about 1/3 to 1/4 what will be lost if Greece actually defaults.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 12:16:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 6)

I think it's more that elements in the Troika have always had a pathological desire to defeat Europe.

Remember a few years ago when Europe was beginning to act in an anti-corporate way?

Europe as a common market and finance zone is fine. Europe aa a strong and independent political entity - especially one with left-populist anti-corporate leanings - must be prevented at all costs.

If the Troika had any serious interest in maintaining the European ideal of a semi-federalised superstate the Greek crisis would never have happened.

Perhaps I'm overestimating the ability to strategise, But it seems to me that the bad faith has been rather calculated and deliberate, and some possible explanations go beyond simple bullying.

by ThatBritGuy (thatbritguy (at) googlemail.com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 09:37:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This ^^^^^ (none / 0)

ThatBritGuy:

Remember a few years ago when Europe was beginning to act in an anti-corporate way?
Europe as a common market and finance zone is fine. Europe aa a strong and independent political entity - especially one with left-populist anti-corporate leanings - must be prevented at all costs.
If the Troika had any serious interest in maintaining the European ideal of a semi-federalised superstate the Greek crisis would never have happened.

'The history of public debt is full of irony. It rarely follows our ideas of order and justice.' Thomas Piketty

by melo (melometa4(at)gmail.com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 10:18:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 3)

You overestimate their planning horizon and the coherence of their position.

When they need three iterations of press releases just to align on what they want to pretend happened at a past meeting, how much planning can there realistically be for the future?

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 11:33:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 3)

You don't need to plan coherently to have this:

ThatBritGuy:

Europe as a common market and finance zone is fine. Europe aa a strong and independent political entity - especially one with left-populist anti-corporate leanings - must be prevented at all costs.

anchored into the very fibre of your political viewpoint.

by afew (afew(a in a circle)eurotrib_dot_com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 04:00:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (none / 1)

Of course, they may declare the Bank of Greece insolvent...

Your treaty-fu is better than mine, but I don't remember seeing any clause that prevents an insolvent central bank from continuing to operate, nor makes it legal to eject it from the clearing system.

Or, for that matter, any process by which a central bank can be declared insolvent against its will.

In any case, cutting of a country from the international payments system is about as hostile as a physical blockade or a siege. It's the kind of thing the US attempts to do on Iran, who could have predicted that the Eurozone would do it on an EU member state?

European Tribune, get your news thirty months early.

- Jake

Friends come and go. Enemies accumulate.

by JakeS (JangoSierra 'at' gmail 'dot' com) on Mon Jun 29th, 2015 at 11:42:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (4.00 / 4)

The ECB has been in a running battle with the Czech central bank for years over the need for the Czech central bank to operate on positive equity, on which the Czechs are entirely correct there is none.

A society committed to the notion that government is always bad will have bad government. And it doesn't have to be that way. — Paul Krugman

by Carrie (migeru at eurotrib dot com) on Tue Jun 30th, 2015 at 12:12:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Just to clarity (none / 1)

Hard to have positive equity when there is a giant suction hose attached to your northern and western boundaries.

by rifek on Wed Jul 1st, 2015 at 02:28:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Grexit and Propaganda | 51 comments (51 topical, 0 editorial, 0 hidden)

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