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For that matter, are you making these predictions as an uninvolved spectator, or is there some action you are recommending (to forestall or mitigate your prediction)?

*Lunatic*, n.
One whose delusions are out of fashion.
by DoDo on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 12:53:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]
As someone with 'Migrationshintergrund', I have more than an average interest in preventing xenophobia from settling in the mainstream. Aside from the measures needed to integrate the refugees already here,
  • Massively hike contributions to UNHCR because they are severely underfunded. It's so much more effective and less life-threatening.
  • Likewise massive support for the Italian, Greek, and Turkish governments. Something that should have been done years ago but now is a good time as ever to throw them some money.
  • Make a decision in the Syrian war. If Assad needs to be helped to victory to stop IS so be it. Or find some other way.
  • This is minor: later on, Merkel will have to come out and just say that people shouldn't pay thousands and risk their lifes to make the trek. I know desperate people will ignore that and I know that it won't go well with her current image as a benevolent mother and our image as the current 'world champion of humanitarian relief' but you can't leave out the signaling. There are push factors and there are pull factors. Between those are the cold sea and barbed wire.
  • And for heaven's sake pass an immigration law. They should have done it in the early nineties but "we are not an immigration country!" was the tenor in the CDU. Maybe they have learned a bit by now.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Sun Sep 6th, 2015 at 01:48:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]
just say that people shouldn't pay thousands and risk their lifes to make the trek

Would Merkel suggest Russia?

Tajikistan's Russian Dream | Foreign Affairs

Since the end of the Tajik civil war in 1997, Tajikistan has sent an increasing number of migrants to Russia. Most of them are men, and they now number over a million, or around 50 percent of all of Tajikistan's working-age males. These workers take odd jobs all over the country: some join the fishing crews off of the Kamchatka Peninsula; others sell food and knickknacks as street vendors in Moscow; most make their living in urban construction. It is hard to overstate the importance of the wages they send home. Indeed, Tajikistan is, as measured by share of GDP, the most remittance-dependent country in the world: at the equivalent of 47.5 percent of its economy in 2012. Between 1999 and 2013, this money helped lower Tajikistan's poverty rate from 96 to 36 percent.
by das monde on Mon Sep 7th, 2015 at 03:26:39 AM EST
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Why not.

Schengen is toast!
by epochepoque on Tue Sep 8th, 2015 at 02:49:56 PM EST
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Europe is apparently a strong preference for the relatively civilized, educated. Ask Greece, for example.

Speaking of Greece, the situation on Lesbos has its extreme, the Aegean as well.

by das monde on Wed Sep 9th, 2015 at 03:17:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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