The 2nd Migrant Wave to Germany | 265 comments (265 topical, editorial, 2 hidden)

Re: Signaling Lessons, Hard Learnt (none / 0)

The UK government/public act like asshats. But it doesn't mean the assessment is completely wrong. No good deed goes unpunished. This is another issue that is accelerating the disintegration of the EU.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Tue Sep 8th, 2015 at 04:54:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Signaling Lessons, Hard Learnt (none / 1)

The assessment isn't based on real experience and is instead informed by four decades of tabloid scare-mongering, thus it is entirely authoritative, and the reference to the UK took away from your own argument.

I submit it is a valid point that Gabriel's declaration might boost the migration wave further, even if we might differ about the magnitude. But, more importantly, I think there are other factors which reduce its significance:

You are right to emphasize the role of communication in creating a snowball effect, but IMHO the strongest part is not what politicians say. In the dozens of interviews with the refugees I read, when telling about the target country, almost every single one mentioned some relative or friend who already made it there. Unlike the comments of politicians, which most of them know only in the most superficial second- third- and n-th-hand form, what personal acquaintances say is direct and detailed.
Meanwhile, there is another public opinion to address: the German one. Up until now, large parts were oblivious to the task of absorbing 100,000 a year, and it will be much more this year whatever Gabriel says. I think quite to the contrary of what you say, this time Gabriel was looking ahead and wanted to make a large refugee influx the new norm in people"'s minds.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 8th, 2015 at 05:18:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Signaling Lessons, Hard Learnt (none / 0)

thus it is entirely authoritative

entirely unauthoritative.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Tue Sep 8th, 2015 at 05:40:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Signaling Lessons, Hard Learnt (none / 0)

Sun, Daily Mail and whatnot have their part to play. But it's not like the UK (as a former colonial power and EU member) has had no experience with migration and refugees.

Regarding your first point, it's true that people tend to go where they have connections. Yet, how did the connections get there in the first place? It just tells me this mechanism will exponentiate the problems for the countries that have the lowest barriers.

I think the majority of people have caught up and know the numbers that are tossed around now. What they won't hear (or don't want to accept) is that this is the new normal for several years ahead. Most of the time nobody takes what dumbo Gabriel says seriously. Politically, there's an inevitable domestic confrontation coming towards us. I already see the rumblings in newspaper comment sections. This is bad. Those voices don't have to be the dominant voices in the general debate. Voting is a very quiet activity.

_{Schengen is toast!}

by epochepoque on Wed Sep 9th, 2015 at 05:10:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Signaling Lessons, Hard Learnt (none / 1)

it's not like the UK (as a former colonial power and EU member) has had no experience with migration and refugees.

The UK certainly had an experience with third-world and post-colonial immigration on par with France or Germany, and had perhaps the biggest influx of intra-EU immigration after the eastern expansion of the EU, but the conditions are a bit different if we speak specifically about refugees.

this mechanism will exponentiate the problems for the countries that have the lowest barriers.

Isn't this a triviality? Refugees will target the lowest barriers, duh.

What they won't hear (or don't want to accept) is that this is the new normal for several years ahead.

And that's what Gabriel's declaration countered, whether he is being taken seriously or not.

I already see the rumblings in newspaper comment sections.

The rumblings in the newspaper comment sections as well as other on-line forums was quite visible and quite the topic before Hungary opened its borders, also on ET. Those voices were the dominant ones until the post-Heidenau backlash, which showed them to be a minority. It doesn't have to stay a minority (see Hungary...), but the fight is on.

_{*Lunatic*, n.

One whose delusions are out of fashion.}

by DoDo on Thu Sep 10th, 2015 at 07:04:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The 2nd Migrant Wave to Germany | 265 comments (265 topical, 0 editorial, 2 hidden)

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